Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 36 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares13,652

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,153

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 64.2¢	$4.3K	$6.6K	+$2.4K	53% 590-526 (1116)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$29.19	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$975.69	$1.4K	+$377.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$406.56	—	-$406.56
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 87¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$716.67	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$1.5K	$879.6	-$595.22	51% 17650-17049 (34699)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93.5¢	$822.83	$879.6	+$56.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.6¢	$652	—	-$652
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$13.08	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 77¢	$792.9	$774.94	-$17.96	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77¢	$596.33	$774.94	+$178.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.8¢	$196.57	—	-$196.57
AL almach	Downavg 65.1¢	$834.03	$707.33	-$126.69	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 37.5¢	$960.25	—	-$960.25	56% 77369-59755 (137124)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$545.71	$506.99	-$38.71	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$184.21	$506.99	+$322.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$361.5	—	-$361.5
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59¢	$511.25	$529.74	+$18.48	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$487	$336	-$151	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$318.1	—	-$318.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$168.9	$336	+$167.1
Bossgirl	Downavg 80.6¢	$469.17	$582	+$112.83	54% 4760-4005 (8765)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 57.8¢	$324.51	$436.89	+$112.38	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$384.76	$231.84	-$152.92	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$285.36	—	-$285.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$99.41	$231.84	+$132.43
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 80.4¢	$321.61	$400	+$78.39	75% 260-87 (347)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 44¢	$232.11	$338.28	+$106.17	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$148.89	$338.28	+$189.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$83.22	—	-$83.22
FairValueMachine	Downavg 72.7¢	$390.45	$362.23	-$28.22	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
BO bosona	Downavg 77.1¢	$523.3	$349.66	-$173.64	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 97¢	$409.16	$338	-$71.16	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 43¢	$430	—	-$430	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 96.1¢	$276.38	$222.04	-$54.34	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 73.1¢	$237.29	$183.89	-$53.4	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 39.2¢	$222.81	$106.48	-$116.32	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$189.42	—	-$189.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.4¢	$33.39	$106.48	+$73.09
Atomforge	Downavg 82.1¢	$185.82	$180.21	-$5.61	64% 4931-2790 (7721)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$4,261.19

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,382.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$29.19

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

Both legs:

Down$975.6972.1¢+$377.37

Up$406.5620.2¢-$406.56

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,925.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$716.67

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,474.83

Value

$879.6

PnL

-$595.22

Record

51%

17650-17049 (34699)

Both legs:

Down$822.8393.5¢+$56.78

Up$65229.6¢-$652

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,085.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$13.08

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,155.19

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$792.9

Value

$774.94

PnL

-$17.96

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

Both legs:

Down$596.3377¢+$178.61

Up$196.5729.8¢-$196.57

almach

Down

Invested

$834.03

Value

$707.33

PnL

-$126.69

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$960.25

Value

—

PnL

-$960.25

Record

56%

77369-59755 (137124)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$545.71

Value

$506.99

PnL

-$38.71

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Both legs:

Down$184.2136.3¢+$322.79

Up$361.539.3¢-$361.5

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$511.25

Value

$529.74

PnL

+$18.48

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$487

Value

$336

PnL

-$151

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Up$318.149.5¢-$318.1

Down$168.950.3¢+$167.1

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$469.17

Value

$582

PnL

+$112.83

Record

54%

4760-4005 (8765)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$324.51

Value

$436.89

PnL

+$112.38

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$384.76

Value

$231.84

PnL

-$152.92

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Up$285.3651.9¢-$285.36

Down$99.4142.9¢+$132.43

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$321.61

Value

$400

PnL

+$78.39

Record

75%

260-87 (347)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$232.11

Value

$338.28

PnL

+$106.17

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Both legs:

Down$148.8944¢+$189.39

Up$83.2220.3¢-$83.22

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$390.45

Value

$362.23

PnL

-$28.22

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

bosona

Down

Invested

$523.3

Value

$349.66

PnL

-$173.64

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$409.16

Value

$338

PnL

-$71.16

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$430

Value

—

PnL

-$430

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$276.38

Value

$222.04

PnL

-$54.34

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$237.29

Value

$183.89

PnL

-$53.4

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$222.81

Value

$106.48

PnL

-$116.32

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

Both legs:

Up$189.4239.2¢-$189.42

Down$33.3931.4¢+$73.09

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$185.82

Value

$180.21

PnL

-$5.61

Record

64%

4931-2790 (7721)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 36 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x30978c9a...9cb768

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794004200

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $6.6K

+$2.4K

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$29.19

ply-pm0

Down — $1.2K

-$716.67

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$595.22

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.1K

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Down — $707.33

-$126.69

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$960.25

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$38.71

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