Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$134.73

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,747

Combined PnL+$929.43

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,060

Combined PnL-$794.7

Up — 66%Down — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 91.8¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$53.54	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
MO mo-money	Upavg 72.7¢	$429.65	$591.09	+$161.44	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
BO bosona	Upavg 52.4¢	$262.21	$500	+$237.79	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
AL almach	Upavg 63.7¢	$305.75	$477.31	+$171.56	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 24.3¢	$317.65	—	-$317.65	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$256.04	$257.3	+$1.26	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$136.33	$257.3	+$120.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$119.71	—	-$119.71
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 57.9¢	$266.74	$271.38	+$4.64	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.5¢	$186.76	$227.17	+$40.4	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$271.15	$144.98	-$126.16	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$81.66	$144.98	+$63.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$189.48	—	-$189.48
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 78.7¢	$242.28	$202.12	-$40.16	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 52.2¢	$117.3	$182.24	+$64.94	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 65.9¢	$128.24	$182.86	+$54.61	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$143.56	$144	+$0.44	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$75.41	$144	+$68.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$68.15	—	-$68.15
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.9¢	$120.42	$150	+$29.58	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$107.43	$101.4	-$6.03	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$61.43	—	-$61.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$46	$101.4	+$55.4
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$63.92	$86.12	+$22.2	56% 77369-59755 (137124)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 12.2¢	$78.37	—	-$78.37	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$60.89	—	-$60.89	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$53.73	$82.57	+$28.84	56% 8764-6844 (15608)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$44.8	$45	+$0.2	58% 63261-46470 (109731)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 27.1¢	$40.94	—	-$40.94	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$23.51	$35.43	+$11.92	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$32.21	—	-$32.21	49% 80931-84364 (165295)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$30.7	—	-$30.7	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$31.49	$62.04	+$30.56	30% 12160-28125 (40285)

Bonereaper

Invested

$2,522.58

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$53.54

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

mo-money

Invested

$429.65

Value

$591.09

PnL

+$161.44

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

bosona

Invested

$262.21

Value

$500

PnL

+$237.79

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

almach

Invested

$305.75

Value

$477.31

PnL

+$171.56

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$317.65

Value

—

PnL

-$317.65

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$256.04

Value

$257.3

PnL

+$1.26

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Up$136.3353¢+$120.97

Down$119.7131¢-$119.71

ply-pm0

Invested

$266.74

Value

$271.38

PnL

+$4.64

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

GoodFallen

Invested

$186.76

Value

$227.17

PnL

+$40.4

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$271.15

Value

$144.98

PnL

-$126.16

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

Both legs:

Up$81.6656.3¢+$63.32

Down$189.4845.4¢-$189.48

asdcaxz

Invested

$242.28

Value

$202.12

PnL

-$40.16

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$117.3

Value

$182.24

PnL

+$64.94

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$128.24

Value

$182.86

PnL

+$54.61

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$143.56

Value

$144

PnL

+$0.44

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Up$75.4152.4¢+$68.59

Down$68.1535.5¢-$68.15

blue.birds

Invested

$120.42

Value

$150

PnL

+$29.58

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.43

Value

$101.4

PnL

-$6.03

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

Both legs:

Down$61.4357.8¢-$61.43

Up$4645.4¢+$55.4

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$63.92

Value

$86.12

PnL

+$22.2

Record

56%

77369-59755 (137124)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.37

Value

—

PnL

-$78.37

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.89

Value

—

PnL

-$60.89

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

13897651<$100

Invested

$53.73

Value

$82.57

PnL

+$28.84

Record

56%

8764-6844 (15608)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$44.8

Value

$45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

63261-46470 (109731)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.94

Value

—

PnL

-$40.94

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$23.51

Value

$35.43

PnL

+$11.92

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.21

Value

—

PnL

-$32.21

Record

49%

80931-84364 (165295)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.7

Value

—

PnL

-$30.7

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$31.49

Value

$62.04

PnL

+$30.56

Record

30%

12160-28125 (40285)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x208905f4...85f8bd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794003300

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $2.6K

+$53.54

mo-money

Up — $591.09

+$161.44

bosona

Up — $500

+$237.79

almach

Up — $477.31

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $271.38

+$4.64

GoodFallen

Up — $227.17

+$40.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$126.16

asdcaxz

Up — $202.12

-$40.16

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