Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$180.66

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,470

Combined PnL+$683.15

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL-$502.48

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$732.68	$744.64	+$11.96	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$544.47	$744.64	+$200.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.1¢	$188.21	—	-$188.21
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 81.4¢	$648.31	$650.35	+$2.04	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 76¢	$477.85	$581.09	+$684.33	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 66.4¢	$539.89	$568.35	+$28.46	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$483.24	$484.57	+$1.33	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$354.41	$484.57	+$130.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.4¢	$128.82	—	-$128.82
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$472.12	$357.89	-$114.23	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.3¢	$315.93	$357.89	+$41.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.9¢	$156.19	—	-$156.19
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.6¢	$425.51	$355.9	-$69.61	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 80.3¢	$407.51	$289.03	-$118.48	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
pspspsps5	Downavg 75¢	$253.33	$273.73	+$20.4	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 71.6¢	$262.68	$250.6	-$12.09	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78¢	$216.53	$230.99	+$14.46	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 81.9¢	$251.74	$299.99	+$48.25	61% 46056-29221 (75277)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 77.7¢	$162.46	$164.07	+$1.61	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$179.03	$177.58	-$1.44	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.2¢	$140.6	$177.58	+$36.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$38.43	—	-$38.43
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 72.3¢	$219.34	$151.47	+$83.61	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$145.35	$112.68	-$32.68	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$72.33	$112.68	+$40.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.3¢	$73.03	—	-$73.03
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$161.68	$137.26	-$24.42	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.7¢	$105.24	$137.26	+$32.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$56.45	—	-$56.45
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 91¢	$145.93	$130.88	-$11.03	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 96.3¢	$114.89	$102.59	-$12.3	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AS asidjasiodja	Downavg 93.4¢	$114.72	$110.52	-$3.13	61% 98563-62545 (161108)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 90.8¢	$70.76	$77.94	+$7.18	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$55.31	$77.45	+$22.14	65% 114545-61579 (176124)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$51.99	—	-$51.99	51% 17650-17049 (34699)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$56.19	$50	-$6.19	56% 60501-47058 (107559)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$85.76	—	-$85.76	55% 52205-42637 (94842)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$732.68

Value

$744.64

PnL

+$11.96

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

Both legs:

Down$544.4773.1¢+$200.17

Up$188.2125.1¢-$188.21

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$648.31

Value

$650.35

PnL

+$2.04

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$477.85

Value

$581.09

PnL

+$684.33

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$539.89

Value

$568.35

PnL

+$28.46

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$483.24

Value

$484.57

PnL

+$1.33

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Down$354.4173.1¢+$130.15

Up$128.8225.4¢-$128.82

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$472.12

Value

$357.89

PnL

-$114.23

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

Both legs:

Down$315.9388.3¢+$41.96

Up$156.1929.9¢-$156.19

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$425.51

Value

$355.9

PnL

-$69.61

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$407.51

Value

$289.03

PnL

-$118.48

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$253.33

Value

$273.73

PnL

+$20.4

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$262.68

Value

$250.6

PnL

-$12.09

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$216.53

Value

$230.99

PnL

+$14.46

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$251.74

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$48.25

Record

61%

46056-29221 (75277)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$162.46

Value

$164.07

PnL

+$1.61

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.03

Value

$177.58

PnL

-$1.44

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

Both legs:

Down$140.679.2¢+$36.99

Up$38.4333¢-$38.43

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$219.34

Value

$151.47

PnL

+$83.61

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$145.35

Value

$112.68

PnL

-$32.68

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$72.3364.2¢+$40.35

Up$73.0335.3¢-$73.03

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.68

Value

$137.26

PnL

-$24.42

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Both legs:

Down$105.2476.7¢+$32.02

Up$56.4545.4¢-$56.45

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$145.93

Value

$130.88

PnL

-$11.03

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$114.89

Value

$102.59

PnL

-$12.3

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

asidjasiodja

Down

Invested

$114.72

Value

$110.52

PnL

-$3.13

Record

61%

98563-62545 (161108)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$70.76

Value

$77.94

PnL

+$7.18

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$55.31

Value

$77.45

PnL

+$22.14

Record

65%

114545-61579 (176124)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$51.99

Value

—

PnL

-$51.99

Record

51%

17650-17049 (34699)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$56.19

Value

$50

PnL

-$6.19

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$85.76

Value

—

PnL

-$85.76

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb008f228...242906

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794002700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$11.96

asdcaxz

Down — $650.35

+$2.04

GoodFallen

Down — $581.09

+$684.33

ply-pm0

Down — $568.35

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $355.9

-$69.61

Bonereaper

Down — $289.03

-$118.48

pspspsps5

Down — $273.73

+$20.4

FairValueMachine

Down — $250.6

-$12.09

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