Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 39 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,898

Combined PnL$-8.8K

Up22 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,350

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 56.2¢	$2.9K	—	$-2.9K	54% 16550-13972 (30522)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 41.8¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 47.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$91.35	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$398.75	55% 9813-8139 (17952)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$521.9	$1.4K	+$900.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$502.02	—	-$502.02
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 44.9¢	$749.6	$1.7K	+$918.34	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$699.14	$799.99	+$100.85	51% 17644-17047 (34691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$356	$799.99	+$443.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$343.15	—	-$343.15
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 42.9¢	$674.1	$827.62	+$153.52	53% 10413-9421 (19834)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 49.1¢	$741.75	$771.97	+$30.22	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 59.1¢	$941.47	—	-$941.47	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 55.4¢	$653.31	—	-$653.31	55% 52205-42636 (94841)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 53.7¢	$640.66	—	-$640.66	55% 50158-41764 (91922)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 54.1¢	$620.41	—	-$620.41	55% 51582-41991 (93573)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 55.9¢	$544.44	$665.3	+$120.86	52% 21080-19238 (40318)
NIULAI4	Upavg 66.1¢	$475.39	$496.62	+$21.23	75% 9869-3286 (13155)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 44.9¢	$331.77	$462.14	+$130.37	49% 4153-4260 (8413)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Downavg 42.6¢	$572.18	—	-$572.18	52% 10524-9872 (20396)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 47.2¢	$228.76	$454.59	+$225.83	65% 114535-61562 (176097)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 55.1¢	$253.77	$272.55	+$18.78	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.7¢	$280.77	$284	+$3.23	57% 9900-7412 (17312)
pspspsps5	Upavg 41.8¢	$196.76	$397.09	+$200.32	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$217.67	$125.57	-$92.11	54% 10448-8804 (19252)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$167	—	-$167
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$50.68	$125.57	+$74.89
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Downavg 21.7¢	$191.06	—	-$117.95	65% 130170-70085 (200255)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$99.3	—	-$99.3	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$72.27	—	-$72.27	59% 6798-4818 (11616)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 38.8¢	$40.41	$89.99	+$49.58	56% 60478-47044 (107522)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$2,901.82

Value

—

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

54%

16550-13972 (30522)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$2,180.81

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,091.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$91.35

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,023.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$398.75

Record

55%

9813-8139 (17952)

Both legs:

Up$521.936.7¢+$900.76

Down$502.0265.9¢-$502.02

uninformedfloww

Invested

$749.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$918.34

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$699.14

Value

$799.99

PnL

+$100.85

Record

51%

17644-17047 (34691)

Both legs:

Up$35644.5¢+$443.99

Down$343.1540¢-$343.15

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$674.1

Value

$827.62

PnL

+$153.52

Record

53%

10413-9421 (19834)

blue.birds

Invested

$741.75

Value

$771.97

PnL

+$30.22

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$941.47

Value

—

PnL

-$941.47

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$653.31

Value

—

PnL

-$653.31

Record

55%

52205-42636 (94841)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$640.66

Value

—

PnL

-$640.66

Record

55%

50158-41764 (91922)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$620.41

Value

—

PnL

-$620.41

Record

55%

51582-41991 (93573)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$544.44

Value

$665.3

PnL

+$120.86

Record

52%

21080-19238 (40318)

NIULAI4

Invested

$475.39

Value

$496.62

PnL

+$21.23

Record

75%

9869-3286 (13155)

Papeasy

Invested

$331.77

Value

$462.14

PnL

+$130.37

Record

49%

4153-4260 (8413)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Down

Invested

$572.18

Value

—

PnL

-$572.18

Record

52%

10524-9872 (20396)

antsaslyku

Invested

$228.76

Value

$454.59

PnL

+$225.83

Record

65%

114535-61562 (176097)

asdcaxz

Invested

$253.77

Value

$272.55

PnL

+$18.78

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

wzbbb

Invested

$280.77

Value

$284

PnL

+$3.23

Record

57%

9900-7412 (17312)

pspspsps5

Invested

$196.76

Value

$397.09

PnL

+$200.32

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$217.67

Value

$125.57

PnL

-$92.11

Record

54%

10448-8804 (19252)

Both legs:

Invested

$191.06

Value

—

PnL

-$117.95

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$99.3

Value

—

PnL

-$99.3

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.27

Value

—

PnL

-$72.27

Record

59%

6798-4818 (11616)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$40.41

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$49.58

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 39 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbbf4a4db...5f0f2c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793998800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Up — $1.2K

+$91.35

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$398.75

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.7K

+$918.34

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$100.85

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Up — $827.62

+$153.52

blue.birds

Up — $771.97

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

mo-money

Down — $0