Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 47%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$204.79

Smart Money Signal

12 of 23 top traders (52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$898.31

Total Shares898

Combined PnL-$113.99

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares903

Combined PnL-$90.8

Up — 52%Down — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$473.43	$395.69	-$77.75	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$183.72	—	-$183.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$289.71	$395.69	+$105.98
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 88¢	$551.58	$530.63	-$20.94	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88¢	$466.88	$530.63	+$63.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.6¢	$84.7	—	-$84.7
pspspsps5	Upavg 75.9¢	$127.87	$110.8	-$17.07	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$312.84	$329.31	+$16.47	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$266.65	$329.31	+$62.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.3¢	$46.19	—	-$46.19
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 92.6¢	$300.71	$256.07	-$44.64	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$202.4	$154.37	-$48.03	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$70.81	—	-$70.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.2¢	$131.59	$154.37	+$22.78
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$214.56	$240	+$25.43	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.4¢	$183.47	$240	+$56.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.7¢	$31.09	—	-$31.09
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$140.97	$110	-$30.97	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.1¢	$61.73	—	-$61.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$79.24	$110	+$30.77
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$173.67	$143.99	-$29.67	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$83.59	—	-$83.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.6¢	$90.08	$143.99	+$53.92
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 96.4¢	$316.57	$170	-$146.57	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 84¢	$130.4	$146.47	+$16.07	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84¢	$123.05	$146.47	+$23.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.9¢	$7.35	—	-$7.35
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 41.3¢	$64.91	—	-$64.91	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$32.41	—	-$32.41	49% 80931-84364 (165295)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 76.9¢	$93.27	$121.29	+$28.02	49% 4160-4265 (8425)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$72	$85.9	+$13.9	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 11.6¢	$9.73	—	-$9.73	65% 114545-61579 (176124)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$28.86	—	-$28.86	52% 12307-11342 (23649)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$51.69	$60	+$8.31	56% 60501-47058 (107559)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 76¢	$36.6	$25	-$11.6	61% 46056-29221 (75277)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$34.56	$49.02	+$14.46	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
OhioAICTR<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$16.68	—	-$16.68	54% 10457-8806 (19263)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 17.9¢	$4.66	—	-$4.66	61% 98563-62545 (161108)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$13.87	$20.23	+$6.36	63% 42413-25111 (67524)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 25.2¢	$287.08	—	+$24.77	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 22.2¢	$14.09	—	-$14.09	12% 18907-134161 (153068)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$473.43

Value

$395.69

PnL

-$77.75

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

Both legs:

Down$183.7224.4¢-$183.72

Up$289.7173.2¢+$105.98

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$551.58

Value

$530.63

PnL

-$20.94

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

Both legs:

Up$466.8888¢+$63.75

Down$84.732.6¢-$84.7

pspspsps5

Invested

$127.87

Value

$110.8

PnL

-$17.07

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$312.84

Value

$329.31

PnL

+$16.47

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

Both legs:

Up$266.6581¢+$62.66

Down$46.1921.3¢-$46.19

ply-pm0

Invested

$300.71

Value

$256.07

PnL

-$44.64

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$202.4

Value

$154.37

PnL

-$48.03

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Both legs:

Down$70.8130.3¢-$70.81

Up$131.5985.2¢+$22.78

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$214.56

Value

$240

PnL

+$25.43

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

Both legs:

Up$183.4776.4¢+$56.52

Down$31.0924.7¢-$31.09

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$140.97

Value

$110

PnL

-$30.97

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

Both legs:

Down$61.7324.1¢-$61.73

Up$79.2472¢+$30.77

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$173.67

Value

$143.99

PnL

-$29.67

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Down$83.5939¢-$83.59

Up$90.0862.6¢+$53.92

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$316.57

Value

$170

PnL

-$146.57

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$130.4

Value

$146.47

PnL

+$16.07

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Both legs:

Invested

$64.91

Value

—

PnL

-$64.91

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.41

Value

—

PnL

-$32.41

Record

49%

80931-84364 (165295)

Papeasy

Invested

$93.27

Value

$121.29

PnL

+$28.02

Record

49%

4160-4265 (8425)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$85.9

PnL

+$13.9

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.73

Value

—

PnL

-$9.73

Record

65%

114545-61579 (176124)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.86

Value

—

PnL

-$28.86

Record

52%

12307-11342 (23649)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$51.69

Value

$60

PnL

+$8.31

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$36.6

Value

$25

PnL

-$11.6

Record

61%

46056-29221 (75277)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$34.56

Value

$49.02

PnL

+$14.46

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

OhioAICTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.68

Value

—

PnL

-$16.68

Record

54%

10457-8806 (19263)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.66

Value

—

PnL

-$4.66

Record

61%

98563-62545 (161108)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$13.87

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$6.36

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$287.08

Value

—

PnL

+$24.77

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.09

Value

—

PnL

-$14.09

Record

12%

18907-134161 (153068)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 23 top traders (52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5d4fb355...04c7a1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793999400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Up — $110.8

-$17.07

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$16.47

ply-pm0

Up — $256.07

-$44.64

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Up — $170

-$146.57

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