Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 31%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$-13.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 36 top traders (31%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares33,912

Combined PnL$-17.1K

Up25 traders

Total Value$23.4K

Total Shares23,365

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
76 76marshCTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$9.2K	—	$-9.2K	— 0-9 (9)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 44.9¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$948.2	51% 17644-17047 (34691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$2.0K	$4.5K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 49.6¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$333.98	54% 16550-13972 (30522)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 49.9¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$373.68	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
AtomforgeCTR	Downavg 52.4¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	64% 4928-2789 (7717)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 52.6¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	55% 14916-12398 (27314)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 53.5¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
machinelearned	Upavg 60¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$246.3	55% 9813-8139 (17952)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 75.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$153.28	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$32.67	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 50.4¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	54% 13630-11676 (25306)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$81.28	63% 60872-35320 (96192)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10.5	56% 30385-23643 (54028)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 46.2¢	$610.26	$1.1K	+$467.13	65% 114535-61562 (176097)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 56.1¢	$1.0K	$976.34	-$63.4	52% 2139-1962 (4101)
NIULAI4	Upavg 42.4¢	$440.11	$999.88	+$559.76	75% 9869-3286 (13155)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 47.7¢	$863.32	$915.47	+$52.15	52% 21080-19238 (40318)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.1¢	$936.22	$964	+$27.78	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
AL almach	Upavg 57.1¢	$696.9	$647.87	-$49.04	55% 50158-41764 (91922)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$554.01	—	-$554.01	55% 51582-41991 (93573)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$502.01	$533.04	+$31.03	59% 11247-7714 (18961)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$306.8	$533.04	+$226.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$195.21	—	-$195.21
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 38.5¢	$328.69	$665.33	+$336.64	12% 18905-134159 (153064)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 43.8¢	$448.76	$1.0K	+$575.92	53% 10413-9421 (19834)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$290.08	$494.06	+$203.98	52% 10524-9872 (20396)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$227.55	$494.06	+$266.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.5¢	$62.53	—	-$62.53
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 84.3¢	$502.3	$360	-$142.3	75% 260-87 (347)

76marshCTR

Down

Invested

$9,151.72

Value

—

PnL

$-9.2K

Record

—

0-9 (9)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$3,577.21

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$948.2

Record

51%

17644-17047 (34691)

Both legs:

Up$2,031.8544.9¢+$2.5K

Down$1,545.3638.2¢$-1.5K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$3,365.54

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$333.98

Record

54%

16550-13972 (30522)

ply-pm0

Invested

$2,726.3

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$373.68

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

AtomforgeCTR

Down

Invested

$2,158.17

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

64%

4928-2789 (7717)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$2,204.46

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

55%

14916-12398 (27314)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,993.55

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

machinelearned

Invested

$1,631.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$246.3

Record

55%

9813-8139 (17952)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,672.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$153.28

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,283.57

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$32.67

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$1,274.92

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

13630-11676 (25306)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,155.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$81.28

Record

63%

60872-35320 (96192)

THG.

Invested

$1,039.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

56%

30385-23643 (54028)

antsaslyku

Invested

$610.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$467.13

Record

65%

114535-61562 (176097)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$1,039.74

Value

$976.34

PnL

-$63.4

Record

52%

2139-1962 (4101)

NIULAI4

Invested

$440.11

Value

$999.88

PnL

+$559.76

Record

75%

9869-3286 (13155)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$863.32

Value

$915.47

PnL

+$52.15

Record

52%

21080-19238 (40318)

hoodquant

Invested

$936.22

Value

$964

PnL

+$27.78

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

almach

Invested

$696.9

Value

$647.87

PnL

-$49.04

Record

55%

50158-41764 (91922)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$554.01

Value

—

PnL

-$554.01

Record

55%

51582-41991 (93573)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$502.01

Value

$533.04

PnL

+$31.03

Record

59%

11247-7714 (18961)

Both legs:

Up$306.857.6¢+$226.24

Down$195.2145.1¢-$195.21

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$328.69

Value

$665.33

PnL

+$336.64

Record

12%

18905-134159 (153064)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$448.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$575.92

Record

53%

10413-9421 (19834)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$290.08

Value

$494.06

PnL

+$203.98

Record

52%

10524-9872 (20396)

Both legs:

Up$227.5546.1¢+$266.51

Down$62.5318.5¢-$62.53

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$502.3

Value

$360

PnL

-$142.3

Record

75%

260-87 (347)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 36 top traders (31%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe5e31527...37b239

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793997900

Traders in this Market

76marsh

Down — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $3.7K

+$333.98

ply-pm0

Up — $3.1K

Atomforge

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Down — $0

blue.birds

Down — $0

machinelearned

Up — $1.9K

+$246.3

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.8K

+$153.28

Bonereaper

Up — $1.3K

+$32.67

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