Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 41%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.4K

Combined PnL

$-23.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 29 top traders (41%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares40,718

Combined PnL$-29.3K

Up17 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares18,943

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Down — 41%Up — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Downavg 63.2¢	$9.2K	—	$-9.2K	53% 590-526 (1116)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 45.6¢	$5.1K	—	$-5.1K	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$4.0K	$5.4K	+$1.4K	51% 17644-17047 (34691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$2.0K	$5.4K	+$3.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$220.21	54% 16550-13972 (30522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.5¢	$1.6K	$4.0K	+$2.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.0K	—	$-4.6K	56% 3906-3033 (6939)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 56.5¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K	55% 14916-12398 (27314)
BoneOhio	Upavg 91.4¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$331.47	74% 105030-37065 (142095)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$21.19	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 46.7¢	$2.1K	$4.0K	+$1.9K	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$23.79	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.8¢	$796.24	$1.7K	+$943.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$919.54	—	-$919.54
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 56.5¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	54% 13630-11676 (25306)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 62.1¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 41.2¢	$893.05	$1.5K	+$617.68	52% 2139-1962 (4101)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$126.1	59% 11247-7714 (18961)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$819.78	—	-$819.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$555.15	$1.5K	+$945.88
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 39.5¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$482.05	55% 9813-8139 (17952)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$731.27	—	-$731.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$793.47	$2.0K	+$1.2K
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 39.8¢	$910.09	$2.1K	+$1.1K	53% 10413-9421 (19834)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$59.14	52% 21080-19238 (40318)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$507.46	$1.3K	+$785.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$725.99	—	-$725.99
BO bosona	Upavg 48.3¢	$869.81	$958.15	+$88.34	55% 51582-41991 (93573)
BossgirlCTR	Downavg 65.5¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	54% 4760-4005 (8765)
MO mo-money	Upavg 47.9¢	$830.47	$910.27	+$79.8	55% 52205-42636 (94841)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$925.74	$1.1K	+$172.36	52% 10524-9872 (20396)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$559.81	$1.1K	+$538.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$365.93	—	-$365.93
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR	Downavg 51.4¢	$2.9K	—	$-2.9K	75% 260-87 (347)
AL almach	Upavg 41.7¢	$561.83	$779.02	+$217.19	55% 50158-41764 (91922)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$792.91	$736.72	-$56.19	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$309.36	$736.72	+$427.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.3¢	$483.55	—	-$483.55
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 45.2¢	$472.8	$753.02	+$280.22	65% 114535-61562 (176097)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Down

Invested

$9,237.3

Value

—

PnL

$-9.2K

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$5,105.21

Value

—

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$4,034.85

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

17644-17047 (34691)

Both legs:

Up$2,026.0537.6¢+$3.4K

Down$2,008.838.4¢$-2.0K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$3,803.59

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$220.21

Record

54%

16550-13972 (30522)

Both legs:

Up$1,628.6840.5¢+$2.4K

Down$2,174.9157¢$-2.2K

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$8,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

56%

3906-3033 (6939)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$2,383

Value

—

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

55%

14916-12398 (27314)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,540.61

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$331.47

Record

74%

105030-37065 (142095)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,802.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$21.19

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,074

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,715.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$23.79

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

Both legs:

Up$796.2445.8¢+$943.33

Down$919.5457.6¢-$919.54

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$1,499.29

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

13630-11676 (25306)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,280.72

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$893.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$617.68

Record

52%

2139-1962 (4101)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,374.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$126.1

Record

59%

11247-7714 (18961)

Both legs:

Down$819.7862.3¢-$819.78

Up$555.1537¢+$945.88

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,524.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$482.05

Record

55%

9813-8139 (17952)

Both legs:

Down$731.2761.2¢-$731.27

Up$793.4739.5¢+$1.2K

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$910.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

10413-9421 (19834)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,233.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$59.14

Record

52%

21080-19238 (40318)

Both legs:

Up$507.4639.3¢+$785.13

Down$725.9958.6¢-$725.99

bosona

Invested

$869.81

Value

$958.15

PnL

+$88.34

Record

55%

51582-41991 (93573)

BossgirlCTR

Down

Invested

$1,532.02

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

4760-4005 (8765)

mo-money

Invested

$830.47

Value

$910.27

PnL

+$79.8

Record

55%

52205-42636 (94841)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$925.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$172.36

Record

52%

10524-9872 (20396)

Both legs:

Up$559.8151¢+$538.28

Down$365.9359.7¢-$365.93

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR

Down

Invested

$2,868.51

Value

—

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

75%

260-87 (347)

almach

Invested

$561.83

Value

$779.02

PnL

+$217.19

Record

55%

50158-41764 (91922)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$792.91

Value

$736.72

PnL

-$56.19

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

Both legs:

Up$309.3642¢+$427.36

Down$483.5572.3¢-$483.55

antsaslyku

Invested

$472.8

Value

$753.02

PnL

+$280.22

Record

65%

114535-61562 (176097)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 29 top traders (41%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x13925296...4b33b0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793998500

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Down — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $3.9K

+$331.47

hoodquant

Up — $1.8K

+$21.19

uninformedfloww

Up — $4.0K

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded