Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.9K

Combined PnL

$6.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 36 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$34.2K

Total Shares34,191

Combined PnL+$11.9K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,951

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
76 76marsh	Downavg 49.2¢	$8.2K	$16.7K	+$8.5K	— 0-9 (9)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$7.5K	$7.0K	-$520.34	53% 590-526 (1116)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$3.7K	$7.0K	+$3.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$3.9K	—	$-3.9K
Atomforge	Downavg 48.2¢	$3.5K	$2.9K	+$2.3K	64% 4931-2790 (7721)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 54.8¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0.44	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 50.5¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$33.54	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$44.29	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 55.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$7.14	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.5¢	$948.38	$907.35	+$866.33	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$942.7	$880.52	-$62.19	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$526.95	$880.52	+$353.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$415.76	—	-$415.76
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 44¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 56.6¢	$751.33	—	-$751.33	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 60.4¢	$651.57	$662.33	+$10.76	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 38¢	$428	$600	+$172	51% 17650-17049 (34699)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 62.6¢	$665.78	$566.29	-$99.48	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 60.2¢	$503.69	$511.81	+$8.12	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 59¢	$546.66	—	-$546.66	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 59¢	$546.14	—	-$546.14	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 58.5¢	$556.36	$499.96	-$56.39	75% 260-87 (347)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 55.2¢	$375.49	$334.2	+$292.91	55% 1686-1401 (3087)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 97.6¢	$441.97	$339.98	-$101.99	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$298.69	$298.7	+$0.01	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.3¢	$129.21	$298.7	+$169.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$169.48	—	-$169.48
MayorMamdani	Downavg 52.5¢	$203.08	$214.11	+$11.03	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$174.4	$264.54	+$90.13	56% 77369-59755 (137124)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$106.15	$264.54	+$158.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$68.25	—	-$68.25
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 41¢	$288.45	$80.96	-$207.49	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$248.99	—	-$248.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$39.45	$80.96	+$41.5

76marsh

Down

Invested

$8,216.29

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

—

0-9 (9)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$7,505.09

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$520.34

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

Both legs:

Down$3,652.0652.3¢+$3.3K

Up$3,853.0352.1¢$-3.9K

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$3,464.87

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

64%

4931-2790 (7721)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,781.95

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$2,479.05

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$33.54

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$2,232.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$44.29

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$1,712.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$7.14

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$1,515.83

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$948.38

Value

$907.35

PnL

+$866.33

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$942.7

Value

$880.52

PnL

-$62.19

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

Both legs:

Down$526.9559.8¢+$353.57

Up$415.7642¢-$415.76

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$1,240.23

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$751.33

Value

—

PnL

-$751.33

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$651.57

Value

$662.33

PnL

+$10.76

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$428

Value

$600

PnL

+$172

Record

51%

17650-17049 (34699)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$665.78

Value

$566.29

PnL

-$99.48

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$503.69

Value

$511.81

PnL

+$8.12

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$546.66

Value

—

PnL

-$546.66

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

almachCTR

Invested

$546.14

Value

—

PnL

-$546.14

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$556.36

Value

$499.96

PnL

-$56.39

Record

75%

260-87 (347)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$375.49

Value

$334.2

PnL

+$292.91

Record

55%

1686-1401 (3087)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$441.97

Value

$339.98

PnL

-$101.99

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$298.69

Value

$298.7

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

Both legs:

Down$129.2143.3¢+$169.48

Up$169.4852.3¢-$169.48

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$203.08

Value

$214.11

PnL

+$11.03

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.4

Value

$264.54

PnL

+$90.13

Record

56%

77369-59755 (137124)

Both legs:

Down$106.1540.1¢+$158.38

Up$68.2548.8¢-$68.25

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$288.45

Value

$80.96

PnL

-$207.49

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Both legs:

Up$248.9941¢-$248.99

Down$39.4548.7¢+$41.5

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 36 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x97b3a449...c80b0b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793999700

Traders in this Market

76marsh

Down — $16.7K

+$8.5K

oxe78sh4w98

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$520.34

Atomforge

Down — $2.9K

+$2.3K

ply-pm0

Down — $2.8K

+$0.44

CrouchPredictions

Down — $2.5K

+$33.54

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $2.2K

-$44.29

1000monkeys

Down — $1.7K

+$7.14

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.5K

GoodFallen

Down — $907.35

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded