Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares22,887

Combined PnL$-17.4K

Down19 traders

Total Value$36.8K

Total Shares36,817

Combined PnL+$14.9K

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Upavg 64.3¢	$5.7K	—	$-5.7K	53% 590-526 (1116)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$3.7K	$3.0K	-$724.41	54% 16550-13972 (30522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.6¢	$2.7K	—	$-2.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.9¢	$943.81	$3.0K	+$2.0K
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 33.4¢	$2.2K	$3.5K	+$1.2K	51% 17644-17047 (34691)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$1.1K	$3.5K	+$2.3K
Atomforge	Downavg 53.4¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$999.36	64% 4928-2789 (7717)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 36.1¢	$2.2K	$3.2K	+$1.0K	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.0K	—	$-3.7K	56% 3906-3033 (6939)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 66.6¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	55% 14916-12398 (27314)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$49.35	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
76 76marsh	Downavg 43.5¢	$7.0K	$16.2K	+$9.1K	— 0-9 (9)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$838.79	55% 9813-8139 (17952)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.8¢	$618.72	$2.5K	+$1.9K
BossgirlCTR	Upavg 57.6¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	54% 4760-4005 (8765)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$90.28	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$868.49	—	-$868.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$778.2
MO mo-money	Downavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$223.97	55% 52205-42636 (94841)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 68.8¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	54% 13630-11676 (25306)
AL almach	Downavg 51.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$178.22	55% 50158-41764 (91922)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 41.6¢	$784.15	$1.2K	+$389.72	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
BO bosona	Downavg 53.1¢	$893.93	$1.1K	+$177	55% 51582-41991 (93573)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 68¢	$986.97	—	-$986.97	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
BoneOhio	Downavg 85.2¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$517.84	74% 105030-37065 (142095)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$775.59	$583.65	-$191.94	53% 10413-9421 (19834)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$579.68	—	-$579.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$195.91	$583.65	+$387.74
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$814.74	$1.0K	+$198.9	52% 21080-19238 (40318)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$493.53	—	-$493.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$321.21	$1.0K	+$692.42
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 39.5¢	$370.6	$759.42	+$388.82	52% 2139-1962 (4101)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 32.5¢	$341.46	$748.15	+$406.69	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 29.2¢	$264.38	$501.32	+$236.94	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.7¢	$117.95	—	-$117.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.2¢	$146.43	$501.32	+$354.89
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$324.95	$341.02	+$16.07	49% 4153-4260 (8413)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$198.73	—	-$198.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$126.22	$341.02	+$214.8

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$5,678.83

Value

—

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$3,680.92

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$724.41

Record

54%

16550-13972 (30522)

Both legs:

Up$2,737.1168.6¢$-2.7K

Down$943.8131.9¢+$2.0K

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$2,240.47

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

17644-17047 (34691)

Both legs:

Up$1,126.3733.4¢$-1.1K

Down$1,114.132.2¢+$2.3K

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$2,321.72

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$999.36

Record

64%

4928-2789 (7717)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,224.6

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$8,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

56%

3906-3033 (6939)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$1,921.42

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

14916-12398 (27314)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,987.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$49.35

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

76marsh

Down

Invested

$7,032.44

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

—

0-9 (9)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,657.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$838.79

Record

55%

9813-8139 (17952)

Both legs:

Up$1,039.1659.5¢$-1.0K

Down$618.7224.8¢+$1.9K

BossgirlCTR

Invested

$1,361.08

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

4760-4005 (8765)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,573.19

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$90.28

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

Both legs:

Up$868.4964.8¢-$868.49

Down$1,704.7168.7¢+$778.2

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,067.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$223.97

Record

55%

52205-42636 (94841)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$1,201.95

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

13630-11676 (25306)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,043.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$178.22

Record

55%

50158-41764 (91922)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$784.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$389.72

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

bosona

Down

Invested

$893.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$177

Record

55%

51582-41991 (93573)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$986.97

Value

—

PnL

-$986.97

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,982.16

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$517.84

Record

74%

105030-37065 (142095)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$775.59

Value

$583.65

PnL

-$191.94

Record

53%

10413-9421 (19834)

Both legs:

Up$579.6859.4¢-$579.68

Down$195.9133.6¢+$387.74

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$814.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$198.9

Record

52%

21080-19238 (40318)

Both legs:

Up$493.5367.6¢-$493.53

Down$321.2131.7¢+$692.42

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$370.6

Value

$759.42

PnL

+$388.82

Record

52%

2139-1962 (4101)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$341.46

Value

$748.15

PnL

+$406.69

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.38

Value

$501.32

PnL

+$236.94

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

Both legs:

Up$117.9532.7¢-$117.95

Down$146.4329.2¢+$354.89

PapeasyARB<$100

Invested

$324.95

Value

$341.02

PnL

+$16.07

Record

49%

4153-4260 (8413)

Both legs:

Up$198.7354.7¢-$198.73

Down$126.2237¢+$214.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x197b6683...0fd9fe

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793998200

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

CTR

Up — $0

$-5.7K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Down — $3.3K

+$999.36

ply-pm0

Down — $3.2K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $2.0K

+$49.35

76marsh

Down — $16.2K

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded