Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 50 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down38 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares17,274

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares740

Combined PnL-$163.1

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$1.2K	56% 3713-2863 (6576)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63.8¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$169.81	55% 15865-13222 (29087)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$5.76	46% 6086-7026 (13112)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.6¢	$701.84	$862.32	+$160.48	56% 14108-11217 (25325)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 60.5¢	$567.46	$646.75	+$79.29	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 68.7¢	$493	$548.26	+$55.27	53% 17476-15739 (33215)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 51¢	$309.42	$514.01	+$204.59	65% 15078-8100 (23178)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 74.9¢	$458.99	$481.32	+$22.33	54% 8401-7119 (15520)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 59.8¢	$356.59	$409.72	+$53.13	56% 12820-9873 (22693)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$406.25	$394.33	-$11.92	55% 6945-5713 (12658)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.3¢	$265.51	$394.33	+$128.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$140.74	—	-$140.74
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.1¢	$423.48	$386.46	-$37.03	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$328.68	$328.57	-$0.11	50% 5680-5734 (11414)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$176.78	$328.57	+$151.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$151.9	—	-$151.9
BL blue.birds	Downavg 79.5¢	$377.41	$348.87	-$28.54	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 66¢	$312.59	$305.99	-$6.59	53% 7543-6769 (14312)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 66¢	$330.46	$303.37	-$27.08	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.6¢	$163.21	$329.08	+$165.87	58% 38706-27758 (66464)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 54.8¢	$97.79	$157.97	+$60.18	55% 7888-6448 (14336)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 63.8¢	$132.77	$208	+$75.23	57% 72361-55060 (127421)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.5¢	$99.98	$120.34	+$20.36	55% 9066-7485 (16551)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 78.4¢	$134.81	$142.72	+$7.91	52% 7411-6916 (14327)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$125.41	$40	-$85.41	54% 8386-7193 (15579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$97.48	—	-$97.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$27.93	$40	+$12.07
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$96	$73	-$23	60% 12680-8430 (21110)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$66.73	$78	+$11.27	54% 46462-38844 (85306)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$59.13	$120.68	+$61.55	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 38.4¢	$58.55	—	-$58.55	55% 18785-15358 (34143)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$7,995

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

56%

3713-2863 (6576)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,346.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$169.81

Record

55%

15865-13222 (29087)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$1,170.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$5.76

Record

46%

6086-7026 (13112)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$701.84

Value

$862.32

PnL

+$160.48

Record

56%

14108-11217 (25325)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$567.46

Value

$646.75

PnL

+$79.29

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$493

Value

$548.26

PnL

+$55.27

Record

53%

17476-15739 (33215)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$309.42

Value

$514.01

PnL

+$204.59

Record

65%

15078-8100 (23178)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$458.99

Value

$481.32

PnL

+$22.33

Record

54%

8401-7119 (15520)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$356.59

Value

$409.72

PnL

+$53.13

Record

56%

12820-9873 (22693)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$406.25

Value

$394.33

PnL

-$11.92

Record

55%

6945-5713 (12658)

Both legs:

Down$265.5167.3¢+$128.82

Up$140.7434.5¢-$140.74

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$423.48

Value

$386.46

PnL

-$37.03

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$328.68

Value

$328.57

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

5680-5734 (11414)

Both legs:

Down$176.7853.8¢+$151.79

Up$151.934.5¢-$151.9

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$377.41

Value

$348.87

PnL

-$28.54

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$312.59

Value

$305.99

PnL

-$6.59

Record

53%

7543-6769 (14312)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$330.46

Value

$303.37

PnL

-$27.08

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$163.21

Value

$329.08

PnL

+$165.87

Record

58%

38706-27758 (66464)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$97.79

Value

$157.97

PnL

+$60.18

Record

55%

7888-6448 (14336)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$132.77

Value

$208

PnL

+$75.23

Record

57%

72361-55060 (127421)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$99.98

Value

$120.34

PnL

+$20.36

Record

55%

9066-7485 (16551)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$134.81

Value

$142.72

PnL

+$7.91

Record

52%

7411-6916 (14327)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$125.41

Value

$40

PnL

-$85.41

Record

54%

8386-7193 (15579)

Both legs:

Up$97.4846.7¢-$97.48

Down$27.9369.8¢+$12.07

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$96

Value

$73

PnL

-$23

Record

60%

12680-8430 (21110)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$66.73

Value

$78

PnL

+$11.27

Record

54%

46462-38844 (85306)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$59.13

Value

$120.68

PnL

+$61.55

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$58.55

Value

—

PnL

-$58.55

Record

55%

18785-15358 (34143)

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 50 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x29dba393...07872b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793604600

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $8.0K

+$1.2K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.5K

+$169.81

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $1.2K

+$5.76

GoodFallen

Down — $862.32

+$160.48

asdcaxz

Down — $646.75

+$79.29

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $548.26

+$55.27

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down — $514.01

+$204.59

sfkjbsr457

Down — $481.32

+$22.33

FairValueMachine

Down — $409.72

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded