Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 52 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,691

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Down40 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,227

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up — 23%Down — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	$-5.2K	56% 3713-2863 (6576)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$115	55% 15865-13222 (29087)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 82.5¢	$864.76	$913.31	+$48.55	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 75.2¢	$901.62	$883.01	-$18.61	53% 17476-15739 (33215)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 79.3¢	$696.97	$751.64	+$54.67	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 68.9¢	$611.98	$696.97	+$84.99	52% 7500-6861 (14361)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.1¢	$611.19	$667.83	+$56.64	56% 14108-11217 (25325)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$545.25	$521.17	-$24.07	55% 6945-5713 (12658)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$274.65	$521.17	+$246.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$270.59	—	-$270.59
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 61.1¢	$351.07	$465.88	+$114.81	54% 8401-7119 (15520)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 48.5¢	$419.73	$457.71	+$37.98	50% 5680-5734 (11414)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 70¢	$464.26	$439.42	-$24.84	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 65.1¢	$351.03	$432.96	+$81.94	52% 7458-6898 (14356)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 67.1¢	$369.36	$430.02	+$60.66	56% 12820-9873 (22693)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 67.6¢	$498.02	$417.03	-$80.99	52% 7497-7009 (14506)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 59.4¢	$282.41	$475.81	+$193.4	55% 18785-15358 (34143)
machinelearned	Downavg 64.5¢	$287.77	$316	+$28.23	55% 9066-7485 (16551)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 68.4¢	$250.67	$315.47	+$64.8	53% 10526-9454 (19980)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 87.1¢	$341.21	$313.49	-$27.22	60% 12680-8430 (21110)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 41.8¢	$138.44	$280.72	+$142.27	58% 38706-27758 (66464)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 99¢	$279.31	$253	-$26.31	26% 8815-24906 (33721)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 80.8¢	$234.78	$241.29	+$6.51	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 74¢	$404.75	—	-$404.75	57% 72361-55060 (127421)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 69.9¢	$194.65	$213.83	+$19.17	55% 7888-6448 (14336)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 62¢	$118.42	$191.14	+$72.73	53% 7543-6769 (14312)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Upavg 23¢	$358.75	—	-$358.75	65% 15078-8100 (23178)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

56%

3713-2863 (6576)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,319.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$115

Record

55%

15865-13222 (29087)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$864.76

Value

$913.31

PnL

+$48.55

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$901.62

Value

$883.01

PnL

-$18.61

Record

53%

17476-15739 (33215)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$696.97

Value

$751.64

PnL

+$54.67

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$611.98

Value

$696.97

PnL

+$84.99

Record

52%

7500-6861 (14361)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$611.19

Value

$667.83

PnL

+$56.64

Record

56%

14108-11217 (25325)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$545.25

Value

$521.17

PnL

-$24.07

Record

55%

6945-5713 (12658)

Both legs:

Down$274.6552.7¢+$246.52

Up$270.5942.7¢-$270.59

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$351.07

Value

$465.88

PnL

+$114.81

Record

54%

8401-7119 (15520)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$419.73

Value

$457.71

PnL

+$37.98

Record

50%

5680-5734 (11414)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$464.26

Value

$439.42

PnL

-$24.84

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$351.03

Value

$432.96

PnL

+$81.94

Record

52%

7458-6898 (14356)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$369.36

Value

$430.02

PnL

+$60.66

Record

56%

12820-9873 (22693)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$498.02

Value

$417.03

PnL

-$80.99

Record

52%

7497-7009 (14506)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$282.41

Value

$475.81

PnL

+$193.4

Record

55%

18785-15358 (34143)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$287.77

Value

$316

PnL

+$28.23

Record

55%

9066-7485 (16551)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$250.67

Value

$315.47

PnL

+$64.8

Record

53%

10526-9454 (19980)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$341.21

Value

$313.49

PnL

-$27.22

Record

60%

12680-8430 (21110)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$138.44

Value

$280.72

PnL

+$142.27

Record

58%

38706-27758 (66464)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$279.31

Value

$253

PnL

-$26.31

Record

26%

8815-24906 (33721)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$234.78

Value

$241.29

PnL

+$6.51

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$404.75

Value

—

PnL

-$404.75

Record

57%

72361-55060 (127421)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$194.65

Value

$213.83

PnL

+$19.17

Record

55%

7888-6448 (14336)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$118.42

Value

$191.14

PnL

+$72.73

Record

53%

7543-6769 (14312)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Invested

$358.75

Value

—

PnL

-$358.75

Record

65%

15078-8100 (23178)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 52 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x68833c77...ce3c75

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793604900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-5.2K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.4K

+$115

blue.birds

Down — $913.31

+$48.55

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $883.01

-$18.61

asdcaxz

Down — $751.64

+$54.67

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down — $696.97

+$84.99

GoodFallen

Down — $667.83

+$56.64

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$24.07

sfkjbsr457

Down — $465.88

+$114.81

ply-pm0

Down — $457.71

+$37.98

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