Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$87.28

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 52 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down38 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,077

Combined PnL+$906.41

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,768

Combined PnL-$819.13

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.2¢	$745.09	$804.34	+$59.25	55% 15865-13222 (29087)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 85.6¢	$741.3	$762.7	+$21.4	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 82.9¢	$671.36	$702.33	+$30.97	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 71.3¢	$497.33	$675.72	+$178.38	53% 7543-6769 (14312)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 83.5¢	$583.02	$560.49	-$22.53	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 72.6¢	$435.74	$516.46	+$80.72	54% 8401-7119 (15520)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.1¢	$479.48	$465.81	-$13.68	55% 6945-5713 (12658)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 54.7¢	$405.27	$427.42	+$22.15	50% 5680-5734 (11414)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 77.4¢	$371.17	$454.89	+$83.72	52% 7497-7009 (14506)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$408.41	$391	-$17.41	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.6¢	$307.19	$391	+$83.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.7¢	$101.22	—	-$101.22
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.2¢	$377.39	$300.03	-$77.36	56% 14108-11217 (25325)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 61.2¢	$290.39	$314.25	+$23.86	56% 12820-9873 (22693)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 49.8¢	$183.91	$319.1	+$135.19	65% 15078-8100 (23178)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 84.5¢	$300.51	$352.76	+$52.25	56% 15023-11796 (26819)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 50.8¢	$524.45	—	-$524.45	57% 72361-55060 (127421)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 69.1¢	$277.16	$276.26	-$0.9	53% 17476-15739 (33215)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 84.3¢	$283.06	$280.43	-$2.63	55% 7888-6448 (14336)
machinelearned	Downavg 74.4¢	$202.68	$268.95	+$66.27	55% 9066-7485 (16551)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 95.9¢	$211.54	$202.96	-$8.59	53% 10526-9454 (19980)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 51.3¢	$123.46	$240.5	+$117.04	56% 8529-6629 (15158)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$98.23	—	-$98.23	51% 892-870 (1762)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.6¢	$96.41	$193.12	+$96.71	58% 38706-27758 (66464)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 78.8¢	$160.55	$103.58	-$56.97	55% 18785-15358 (34143)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 81.5¢	$113.04	$101.56	-$8.08	60% 12680-8430 (21110)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100	Downavg 82¢	$90.45	$89.93	-$0.52	52% 7500-6861 (14361)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$745.09

Value

$804.34

PnL

+$59.25

Record

55%

15865-13222 (29087)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$741.3

Value

$762.7

PnL

+$21.4

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$671.36

Value

$702.33

PnL

+$30.97

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$497.33

Value

$675.72

PnL

+$178.38

Record

53%

7543-6769 (14312)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$583.02

Value

$560.49

PnL

-$22.53

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$435.74

Value

$516.46

PnL

+$80.72

Record

54%

8401-7119 (15520)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$479.48

Value

$465.81

PnL

-$13.68

Record

55%

6945-5713 (12658)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$405.27

Value

$427.42

PnL

+$22.15

Record

50%

5680-5734 (11414)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$371.17

Value

$454.89

PnL

+$83.72

Record

52%

7497-7009 (14506)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$408.41

Value

$391

PnL

-$17.41

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

Both legs:

Down$307.1978.6¢+$83.81

Up$101.2224.7¢-$101.22

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$377.39

Value

$300.03

PnL

-$77.36

Record

56%

14108-11217 (25325)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$290.39

Value

$314.25

PnL

+$23.86

Record

56%

12820-9873 (22693)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$183.91

Value

$319.1

PnL

+$135.19

Record

65%

15078-8100 (23178)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$300.51

Value

$352.76

PnL

+$52.25

Record

56%

15023-11796 (26819)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$524.45

Value

—

PnL

-$524.45

Record

57%

72361-55060 (127421)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$277.16

Value

$276.26

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

17476-15739 (33215)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$283.06

Value

$280.43

PnL

-$2.63

Record

55%

7888-6448 (14336)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$202.68

Value

$268.95

PnL

+$66.27

Record

55%

9066-7485 (16551)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$211.54

Value

$202.96

PnL

-$8.59

Record

53%

10526-9454 (19980)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$123.46

Value

$240.5

PnL

+$117.04

Record

56%

8529-6629 (15158)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100

Invested

$98.23

Value

—

PnL

-$98.23

Record

51%

892-870 (1762)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$96.41

Value

$193.12

PnL

+$96.71

Record

58%

38706-27758 (66464)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$160.55

Value

$103.58

PnL

-$56.97

Record

55%

18785-15358 (34143)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$113.04

Value

$101.56

PnL

-$8.08

Record

60%

12680-8430 (21110)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100

Down

Invested

$90.45

Value

$89.93

PnL

-$0.52

Record

52%

7500-6861 (14361)

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 52 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x870bae33...1d062e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793604300

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $804.34

+$59.25

asdcaxz

Down — $762.7

+$21.4

blue.birds

Down — $702.33

+$30.97

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $675.72

+$178.38

1000monkeys

Down — $560.49

-$22.53

sfkjbsr457

Down — $516.46

+$80.72

stepahead

Down — $465.81

-$13.68

ply-pm0

Down — $427.42

+$22.15

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down — $454.89

+$83.72

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$17.41

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