Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

-$38.01

Smart Money Signal

36 of 51 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares10,745

Combined PnL+$723.81

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,183

Combined PnL-$761.82

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$8.8	46% 6086-7026 (13112)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.4¢	$648.95	$1.3K	+$638.63	58% 38706-27758 (66464)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 86.1¢	$861.88	$911.98	+$50.1	56% 15023-11796 (26819)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$663.04	$712.3	+$49.26	55% 6945-5713 (12658)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.9¢	$504.76	$712.3	+$207.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$158.28	—	-$158.28
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 92.2¢	$641.92	$591.95	-$49.97	54% 8401-7119 (15520)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 66.1¢	$488.64	$517.27	+$28.64	55% 15865-13222 (29087)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.8¢	$446.54	$474.28	+$27.73	50% 5680-5734 (11414)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76.9¢	$469.81	$470.77	+$0.96	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.2¢	$473.05	$458.99	-$14.05	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 77.5¢	$384.23	$390.39	+$6.16	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 82.9¢	$422.12	$390.42	-$31.69	52% 7497-7009 (14506)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 88¢	$338.26	$370.43	+$32.17	52% 7500-6861 (14361)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 71.3¢	$324.68	$352.67	+$27.99	65% 15078-8100 (23178)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 84.2¢	$394.76	$351.72	-$43.05	53% 17476-15739 (33215)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 73.5¢	$330.76	$349.93	+$19.17	56% 14108-11217 (25325)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 78.7¢	$341.9	$335.82	-$6.08	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 71.7¢	$338.59	$311.51	-$27.08	52% 7411-6916 (14327)
machinelearned	Upavg 87¢	$306.9	$300	-$6.9	55% 9066-7485 (16551)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 71.9¢	$210.09	$196.67	-$13.42	56% 12820-9873 (22693)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR	Downavg 36.2¢	$310.99	—	-$310.99	53% 10526-9454 (19980)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 92.2¢	$153.95	$145.9	-$1.15	65% 126838-67771 (194609)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 51.3¢	$102.25	$120	+$17.75	50% 37282-36733 (74015)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 86.2¢	$112	$130	+$18	57% 72361-55060 (127421)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$89.33	$93	+$3.67	60% 12680-8430 (21110)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 89.1¢	$89.4	$95.11	+$5.71	55% 18785-15358 (34143)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$1,591.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$8.8

Record

46%

6086-7026 (13112)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$648.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$638.63

Record

58%

38706-27758 (66464)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$861.88

Value

$911.98

PnL

+$50.1

Record

56%

15023-11796 (26819)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$663.04

Value

$712.3

PnL

+$49.26

Record

55%

6945-5713 (12658)

Both legs:

Up$504.7670.9¢+$207.54

Down$158.2827.2¢-$158.28

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$641.92

Value

$591.95

PnL

-$49.97

Record

54%

8401-7119 (15520)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$488.64

Value

$517.27

PnL

+$28.64

Record

55%

15865-13222 (29087)

ply-pm0

Invested

$446.54

Value

$474.28

PnL

+$27.73

Record

50%

5680-5734 (11414)

asdcaxz

Invested

$469.81

Value

$470.77

PnL

+$0.96

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

blue.birds

Invested

$473.05

Value

$458.99

PnL

-$14.05

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$384.23

Value

$390.39

PnL

+$6.16

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$422.12

Value

$390.42

PnL

-$31.69

Record

52%

7497-7009 (14506)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$338.26

Value

$370.43

PnL

+$32.17

Record

52%

7500-6861 (14361)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$324.68

Value

$352.67

PnL

+$27.99

Record

65%

15078-8100 (23178)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$394.76

Value

$351.72

PnL

-$43.05

Record

53%

17476-15739 (33215)

GoodFallen

Invested

$330.76

Value

$349.93

PnL

+$19.17

Record

56%

14108-11217 (25325)

1000monkeys

Invested

$341.9

Value

$335.82

PnL

-$6.08

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$338.59

Value

$311.51

PnL

-$27.08

Record

52%

7411-6916 (14327)

machinelearned

Invested

$306.9

Value

$300

PnL

-$6.9

Record

55%

9066-7485 (16551)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$210.09

Value

$196.67

PnL

-$13.42

Record

56%

12820-9873 (22693)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR

Down

Invested

$310.99

Value

—

PnL

-$310.99

Record

53%

10526-9454 (19980)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$153.95

Value

$145.9

PnL

-$1.15

Record

65%

126838-67771 (194609)

Alpharo28

Invested

$102.25

Value

$120

PnL

+$17.75

Record

50%

37282-36733 (74015)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$112

Value

$130

PnL

+$18

Record

57%

72361-55060 (127421)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$89.33

Value

$93

PnL

+$3.67

Record

60%

12680-8430 (21110)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$89.4

Value

$95.11

PnL

+$5.71

Record

55%

18785-15358 (34143)

Smart Money Signal

36 of 51 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf2f96b1f...317f9d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793604000

Traders in this Market

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $1.6K

+$8.8

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.3K

+$638.63

CrouchPredictions

Up — $911.98

+$50.1

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$49.26

sfkjbsr457

Up — $591.95

-$49.97

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $517.27

+$28.64

ply-pm0

Up — $474.28

+$27.73

asdcaxz

Up — $470.77

+$0.96

blue.birds

Up — $458.99

-$14.05

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $390.39

+$6.16

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