Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$355.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 44 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,348

Combined PnL+$992.94

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,713

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 67.4¢	$655.53	$869.96	+$214.43	53% 10526-9454 (19980)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 97¢	$442.3	$430	-$12.3	26% 8815-24906 (33721)
ST stepahead	Downavg 57.8¢	$420.7	$383.85	+$347.01	55% 6945-5713 (12658)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 50.2¢	$355.32	$374.98	+$19.66	55% 15865-13222 (29087)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 65.3¢	$289.88	$273.2	-$16.68	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 69¢	$210.39	$304.79	+$94.4	55% 18785-15358 (34143)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 90.6¢	$326.52	$267.2	-$59.32	54% 8401-7119 (15520)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 19.4¢	$230.56	—	-$230.56	53% 17476-15739 (33215)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR	Upavg 60.2¢	$258.47	—	-$258.47	52% 7500-6861 (14361)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 98¢	$205.03	$203	-$2.03	65% 15078-8100 (23178)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 68.1¢	$206.95	—	-$206.95	59% 7179-5059 (12238)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 85.7¢	$178.72	$180.72	+$1.99	60% 12680-8430 (21110)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 79.7¢	$183.31	$170.61	-$12.7	50% 5680-5734 (11414)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 34.8¢	$112.34	$323	+$210.66	56% 8529-6629 (15158)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$92.79	—	-$92.79	56% 12820-9873 (22693)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 42.5¢	$75.94	$101.65	+$89.29	50% 37282-36733 (74015)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$81.29	—	-$81.29	55% 7888-6448 (14336)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$94.45	$88.41	-$6.04	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 79.9¢	$118.62	$77.99	-$40.63	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$73.15	$77	+$3.85	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$39.55	$77	+$37.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$33.6	—	-$33.6
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 23¢	$109.62	—	-$109.62	56% 14108-11217 (25325)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$60	—	-$60	52% 7497-7009 (14506)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$66.21	—	-$66.21	49% 3428-3553 (6981)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$46.1	$84.4	+$38.3	52% 7411-6916 (14327)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 27¢	$21.6	$80	+$58.4	35% 19246-36311 (55557)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$655.53

Value

$869.96

PnL

+$214.43

Record

53%

10526-9454 (19980)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$442.3

Value

$430

PnL

-$12.3

Record

26%

8815-24906 (33721)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$420.7

Value

$383.85

PnL

+$347.01

Record

55%

6945-5713 (12658)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$355.32

Value

$374.98

PnL

+$19.66

Record

55%

15865-13222 (29087)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$289.88

Value

$273.2

PnL

-$16.68

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$210.39

Value

$304.79

PnL

+$94.4

Record

55%

18785-15358 (34143)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$326.52

Value

$267.2

PnL

-$59.32

Record

54%

8401-7119 (15520)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$230.56

Value

—

PnL

-$230.56

Record

53%

17476-15739 (33215)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR

Invested

$258.47

Value

—

PnL

-$258.47

Record

52%

7500-6861 (14361)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$205.03

Value

$203

PnL

-$2.03

Record

65%

15078-8100 (23178)

13897651CTR

Invested

$206.95

Value

—

PnL

-$206.95

Record

59%

7179-5059 (12238)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$178.72

Value

$180.72

PnL

+$1.99

Record

60%

12680-8430 (21110)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$183.31

Value

$170.61

PnL

-$12.7

Record

50%

5680-5734 (11414)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$112.34

Value

$323

PnL

+$210.66

Record

56%

8529-6629 (15158)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$92.79

Value

—

PnL

-$92.79

Record

56%

12820-9873 (22693)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$75.94

Value

$101.65

PnL

+$89.29

Record

50%

37282-36733 (74015)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$81.29

Value

—

PnL

-$81.29

Record

55%

7888-6448 (14336)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$94.45

Value

$88.41

PnL

-$6.04

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$118.62

Value

$77.99

PnL

-$40.63

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.15

Value

$77

PnL

+$3.85

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

Both legs:

Down$39.5551.4¢+$37.45

Up$33.646.6¢-$33.6

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$109.62

Value

—

PnL

-$109.62

Record

56%

14108-11217 (25325)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR<$100

Invested

$60

Value

—

PnL

-$60

Record

52%

7497-7009 (14506)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$66.21

Value

—

PnL

-$66.21

Record

49%

3428-3553 (6981)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$46.1

Value

$84.4

PnL

+$38.3

Record

52%

7411-6916 (14327)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$21.6

Value

$80

PnL

+$58.4

Record

35%

19246-36311 (55557)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 44 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf97e4308...bf658c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793605200

Traders in this Market

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down — $869.96

+$214.43

Hcrystallash

Down — $430

-$12.3

stepahead

Down — $383.85

+$347.01

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $374.98

+$19.66

1000monkeys

Down — $273.2

-$16.68

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $304.79

+$94.4

sfkjbsr457

Down — $267.2

-$59.32

x-MoneyForWhiskas

CTR

Up — $0

-$230.56

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

CTR

Up — $0

-$258.47

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down — $203

-$2.03

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