Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 46 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down35 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,321

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,610

Combined PnL-$275.34

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 73.9¢	$797.19	$927.87	+$130.68	55% 15865-13222 (29087)
ST stepahead	Downavg 62¢	$665.55	$679.52	+$13.96	55% 6945-5713 (12658)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.7¢	$422.22	$475.34	+$53.12	56% 15023-11796 (26819)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 54.8¢	$265.1	$474.87	+$209.77	52% 7500-6861 (14361)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.1¢	$230.66	$499.99	+$269.32	58% 38706-27758 (66464)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 65.2¢	$352.48	$345.74	-$6.74	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 80.3¢	$300.61	$325.07	+$24.46	53% 17476-15739 (33215)
13 13897651	Downavg 60.2¢	$262.26	$358.54	+$96.28	59% 7179-5059 (12238)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Downavg 60.1¢	$217.16	$356.15	+$142.14	63% 1799-1079 (2878)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.1¢	$216.92	$289	+$72.08	55% 9066-7485 (16551)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 61.6¢	$202.07	$241.73	+$39.66	52% 7411-6916 (14327)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.2¢	$224.6	$228	+$3.4	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 76.3¢	$241.56	$216.35	-$25.21	56% 14108-11217 (25325)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 65.1¢	$163.79	$212.95	+$49.15	60% 12680-8430 (21110)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 84.4¢	$212.67	$225.41	+$12.74	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.2¢	$190.78	$192.08	+$1.3	50% 5680-5734 (11414)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$183.03	$159.15	-$23.88	53% 10526-9454 (19980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$98.67	$159.15	+$60.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$84.36	—	-$84.36
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 60¢	$157.71	$187.29	+$30.58	50% 37282-36733 (74015)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 37.5¢	$186.1	$97	-$89.1	56% 8529-6629 (15158)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$48.13	$97	+$48.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$137.97	—	-$137.97
Atomforge	Downavg 66.2¢	$99.59	$150.36	+$50.77	64% 4441-2454 (6895)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$83.16	$120	+$36.84	52% 7497-7009 (14506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$58.8	$120	+$61.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 12¢	$24.36	—	-$24.36
FairValueMachine	Downavg 69.9¢	$136.28	$142.05	+$5.77	56% 12820-9873 (22693)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 67.2¢	$93.38	$138.69	+$45.3	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
FL flippingsharks	Downavg 78¢	$93.7	$120.13	+$26.43	56% 11274-8984 (20258)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100	Upavg 15.3¢	$93.37	—	-$93.37	65% 15078-8100 (23178)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$797.19

Value

$927.87

PnL

+$130.68

Record

55%

15865-13222 (29087)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$665.55

Value

$679.52

PnL

+$13.96

Record

55%

6945-5713 (12658)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$422.22

Value

$475.34

PnL

+$53.12

Record

56%

15023-11796 (26819)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$265.1

Value

$474.87

PnL

+$209.77

Record

52%

7500-6861 (14361)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$230.66

Value

$499.99

PnL

+$269.32

Record

58%

38706-27758 (66464)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$352.48

Value

$345.74

PnL

-$6.74

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$300.61

Value

$325.07

PnL

+$24.46

Record

53%

17476-15739 (33215)

13897651

Down

Invested

$262.26

Value

$358.54

PnL

+$96.28

Record

59%

7179-5059 (12238)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down

Invested

$217.16

Value

$356.15

PnL

+$142.14

Record

63%

1799-1079 (2878)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$216.92

Value

$289

PnL

+$72.08

Record

55%

9066-7485 (16551)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$202.07

Value

$241.73

PnL

+$39.66

Record

52%

7411-6916 (14327)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$224.6

Value

$228

PnL

+$3.4

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$241.56

Value

$216.35

PnL

-$25.21

Record

56%

14108-11217 (25325)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$163.79

Value

$212.95

PnL

+$49.15

Record

60%

12680-8430 (21110)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$212.67

Value

$225.41

PnL

+$12.74

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$190.78

Value

$192.08

PnL

+$1.3

Record

50%

5680-5734 (11414)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.03

Value

$159.15

PnL

-$23.88

Record

53%

10526-9454 (19980)

Both legs:

Invested

$157.71

Value

$187.29

PnL

+$30.58

Record

50%

37282-36733 (74015)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$186.1

Value

$97

PnL

-$89.1

Record

56%

8529-6629 (15158)

Both legs:

Down$48.1349.6¢+$48.87

Up$137.9737.5¢-$137.97

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$99.59

Value

$150.36

PnL

+$50.77

Record

64%

4441-2454 (6895)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.16

Value

$120

PnL

+$36.84

Record

52%

7497-7009 (14506)

Both legs:

Invested

$136.28

Value

$142.05

PnL

+$5.77

Record

56%

12820-9873 (22693)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$93.38

Value

$138.69

PnL

+$45.3

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

flippingsharks

Down

Invested

$93.7

Value

$120.13

PnL

+$26.43

Record

56%

11274-8984 (20258)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100

Invested

$93.37

Value

—

PnL

-$93.37

Record

65%

15078-8100 (23178)

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 46 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1c454e38...a0c446

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793603400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $927.87

+$130.68

stepahead

Down — $679.52

+$13.96

CrouchPredictions

Down — $475.34

+$53.12

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down — $474.87

+$209.77

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $499.99

+$269.32

1000monkeys

Down — $345.74

-$6.74

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $325.07

+$24.46

13897651

Down — $358.54

+$96.28

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down — $356.15

+$142.14

machinelearned

Down — $289

+$72.08

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