Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (54%) · Up at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Up60¢Down40¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$32.16

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 59.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up60%

Down41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$388.65

Total Shares571

Combined PnL+$25.38

Down6 traders

Total Value$224.41

Total Shares569

Combined PnL+$6.78

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 54.7¢	$275.82	$301.75	+$25.93	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$251.78	$248.81	-$2.97	30% 12160-28125 (40285)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$131.13	$143.91	+$12.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$120.66	$104.9	-$15.75
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$186.53	$206.37	+$19.84	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$122.97	$138.86	+$15.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.2¢	$63.56	$67.52	+$3.96
wowitsamazingCTR	Downavg 37.2¢	$127.45	$131.93	+$4.48	67% 22484-10826 (33310)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$34.55	$36.58	+$2.03	73% 95470-36111 (131581)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$35.34	$32.63	-$2.72	56% 60501-47058 (107559)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$28.85	$31.59	+$2.74	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$25.61	$24.36	-$1.25	59% 2990-2083 (5073)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 33.1¢	$11.58	$12.78	+$1.2	63% 42413-25111 (67524)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$10.55	$11.08	+$0.53	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$8.13	$8.26	+$0.12	58% 63261-46470 (109731)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$7.9	$7.7	-$0.2	50% 8363-8418 (16781)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$5.97	$6.15	+$0.18	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$6.36	$5.75	-$0.61	52% 12307-11342 (23649)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$2.79	$2.53	-$0.26	61% 46056-29221 (75277)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$275.82

Value

$301.75

PnL

+$25.93

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$251.78

Value

$248.81

PnL

-$2.97

Record

30%

12160-28125 (40285)

Both legs:

Up$131.1356¢+$12.78

Down$120.6644.3¢-$15.75

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$186.53

Value

$206.37

PnL

+$19.84

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Up$122.9754.5¢+$15.89

Down$63.5636.2¢+$3.96

wowitsamazingCTR

Down

Invested

$127.45

Value

$131.93

PnL

+$4.48

Record

67%

22484-10826 (33310)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.55

Value

$36.58

PnL

+$2.03

Record

73%

95470-36111 (131581)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$35.34

Value

$32.63

PnL

-$2.72

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$28.85

Value

$31.59

PnL

+$2.74

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.61

Value

$24.36

PnL

-$1.25

Record

59%

2990-2083 (5073)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.58

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$1.2

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.55

Value

$11.08

PnL

+$0.53

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

63261-46470 (109731)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

8363-8418 (16781)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$5.97

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.61

Record

52%

12307-11342 (23649)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.26

Record

61%

46056-29221 (75277)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.