Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 20% (99–407, n=506) · PM monthly #729 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$19.3K
Record
99W / 407L
Win Rate
20.0%
of 506 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1670
Source
PM monthly #729
Record (90 d)
87/473 · 18%
Trades
76
Markets
637
Volume
$185.0K
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Specialties
466 settled consensus markets · held side won 19% at an average entry of 25¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where notfairplay's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 19% of 466 at an average 25¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 67%(won 7% of 310)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 30% of 97)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 54% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 91% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.