Known as longliveapples since Nov 14 2026 · Previously known as: appleperson (Nov 13 – Nov 14 2026), longliveapples (Nov 9 – Nov 13 2026)
Consensus PnL $150 · no settled consensus market yet · was PM monthly #992 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$150.02
Record
0W / 0L
Win Rate
—
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1620
Source
PM monthly #992
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
90
Markets
21
Volume
$907.79
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Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $221 · now 55¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?Yes $204 · now 27¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (47% of 15)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 10%-15%?Yes $161 · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?Yes $110 · now 6¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?No $109 · now 28¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $82 · now 55¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most mayoral elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes $49 · now 63¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?No $19 · now 98¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 76¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where longliveapples's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.