Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 73¢ · $829 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$828.54
$57.2
64.8¢ → 72.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
557h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | Noavg 62.2¢ | $625.4 | $679 | +$55.74 | 53% 1786-1560 (3346) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $68.6 | $58 | -$4.2 | 53% 23824-20966 (44790) |
 clazzy1<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $41.91 | $45.67 | +$4.95 | 65% 503-275 (778) |
 applepie3<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $22.52 | $20.87 | -$1.16 | 59% 460-314 (774) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $11.4 | $16.5 | +$5.7 | 51% 548-533 (1081) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $17.15 | $4.88 | -$3.48 | 40% 6571-9852 (16423) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 81.6¢ | $4.08 | $3.63 | -$0.35 | 26% 7359-21131 (28490) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$625.4
Value
$679
PnL
+$55.74
Record
53%
1786-1560 (3346)
Invested
$68.6
Value
$58
PnL
-$4.2
Record
53%
23824-20966 (44790)
clazzy1<$100Invested
$41.91
Value
$45.67
PnL
+$4.95
Record
65%
503-275 (778)
applepie3<$100Invested
$22.52
Value
$20.87
PnL
-$1.16
Record
59%
460-314 (774)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$5.7
Record
51%
548-533 (1081)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$17.15
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$3.48
Record
40%
6571-9852 (16423)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$3.63
PnL
-$0.35
Record
26%
7359-21131 (28490)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.