Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most mayoral elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 61¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$196.34
$42.5
47¢ → 60.5¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 appleperson | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $117.94 | $143.91 | +$25.97 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $1.13 | $16.35 | +$15.23 | 42% 2627-3655 (6282) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $12.1 | +$0.9 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $12.1 | -$1.1 | 13% 76-495 (571) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.5¢ | $10.35 | $11.85 | +$1.5 | 42% 1621-2282 (3903) |
applepersonInvested
$117.94
Value
$143.91
PnL
+$25.97
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$15.23
Record
42%
2627-3655 (6282)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$0.9
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$12.1
PnL
-$1.1
Record
13%
76-495 (571)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$11.85
PnL
+$1.5
Record
42%
1621-2282 (3903)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.