Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $319 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$318.7
$91
99.3¢ → 94.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 purplewaterCTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $16.01 | $110.2 | +$94.19 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.1¢ | $123.83 | $106.25 | -$17.58 | 36% 265-479 (744) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $84.71 | $72.25 | -$12.46 | 30% 1134-2678 (3812) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.6 | $23.44 | +$22.84 | 14% 93-566 (659) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $125.08 | $5.71 | +$4.01 | 39% 3701-5905 (9606) |
purplewaterCTRInvested
$16.01
Value
$110.2
PnL
+$94.19
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$123.83
Value
$106.25
PnL
-$17.58
Record
36%
265-479 (744)
Invested
$84.71
Value
$72.25
PnL
-$12.46
Record
30%
1134-2678 (3812)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$23.44
PnL
+$22.84
Record
14%
93-566 (659)
Invested
$125.08
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$4.01
Record
39%
3701-5905 (9606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.