Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 70¢ · $406 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$405.62
-$2.67
71.5¢ → 69.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
702h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 71.9¢ | $283.15 | $277.93 | -$5.22 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $82.56 | $82.17 | -$0.39 | — 4-1 (5) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $14.5 | $15 | +$0.5 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
 longliveapplesCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $11.95 | $13.78 | +$1.84 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $5.8 | $6 | +$0.2 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $4.52 | $4.84 | +$0.32 | 52% 5324-4829 (10153) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | — 12-2 (14) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $2.32 | $2.4 | +$0.08 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
Invested
$283.15
Value
$277.93
PnL
-$5.22
Record
41%
3010-4415 (7425)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$82.56
Value
$82.17
PnL
-$0.39
Record
—
4-1 (5)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$14.5
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.5
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
longliveapplesCTR<$100Invested
$11.95
Value
$13.78
PnL
+$1.84
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$4.52
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.32
Record
52%
5324-4829 (10153)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
—
12-2 (14)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.08
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.