PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market46% (224–265, n=489)89% (47–6, n=53)92% (213–18, n=231)
Consensus PnL—-$1.8M$65K$434K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #977Hand-pickedPM monthly #265PM monthly #897
Sides with the consensus0% (0 of 1 open)41% (13 of 32 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • Esports +39 pts n=11, ROI +36%
  • Soccer +35 pts n=13, ROI +49%
  • MLB +27 pts n=17, ROI −3%
Weakest topic—MLB −2 pts, n=17——
Settled positions, side won79% of 76 at avg 53¢, ROI +24%98% of 5076 at avg 92¢, ROI −32%90% of 41 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 335 at avg 52¢, ROI +47%
Entries under 30¢9% (won 57% of 7)5% (won 75% of 268)0%3% (won 90% of 10)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 80% of 20)1% (won 65% of 62)22% (won 67% of 9)36% (won 98% of 120)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 76% of 37)2% (won 90% of 100)68% (won 100% of 28)59% (won 98% of 197)
Entries 70¢ and up16% (won 100% of 12)92% (won 100% of 4646)10% (won 75% of 4)2% (won 100% of 8)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.