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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| operationcastle | rated | texaskid | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 46% (227–267, n=494) | 66% (367–187, n=554) | 67% (469–231, n=700) |
| Consensus PnL | — | -$1.8M | $7.0M | $10.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #916 | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #51 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 44% (14 of 32 open) | no open consensus position | 76% (53 of 70 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
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| |
| Weakest topic | — | MLB −2 pts, n=17 | College Basketball ±0 pts, n=29 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 98% of 5076 at avg 92¢, ROI −32% | 75% of 566 at avg 53¢, ROI +19% | 97% of 471 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 5% (won 75% of 268) | 1% (won 0% of 3) | 11% (won 87% of 52) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 1% (won 65% of 62) | 26% (won 68% of 148) | 34% (won 98% of 162) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 2% (won 90% of 100) | 69% (won 78% of 392) | 33% (won 99% of 154) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 92% (won 100% of 4646) | 4% (won 87% of 23) | 22% (won 100% of 103) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | operationcastle | rated | texaskid | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | — | No $1 | — | No $20K |