Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
musicenthusiast0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)58% (338–249, n=587)46% (131–154, n=285)47% (13868–15346, n=29214)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$11K$19.1M$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #989was PM monthly #715PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus55% (11 of 20 open)no open consensus position83% (5 of 6 open)90% (147 of 164 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicEsports −8 pts, n=25College Basketball −12 pts, n=174——
Settled positions, side won45% of 216 at avg 41¢, ROI +8%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢29% (won 24% of 63)0% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 57% of 2537)10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢39% (won 35% of 85)42% (won 46% of 565)22% (won 94% of 5518)36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢19% (won 74% of 42)57% (won 51% of 766)36% (won 99% of 8928)35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up12% (won 85% of 26)0% (won 100% of 4)32% (won 100% of 7821)19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketmusicenthusiast0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1BreakTheBank
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1——Yes $29K