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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
biying99999BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)50% (114–116, n=230)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (877–458, n=1335)
Consensus PnL$17K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #444PM monthly #2PM monthly #12
Sides with the consensus50% (2 of 4 open)67% (42 of 63 open)71% (27 of 38 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +52 pts n=47, ROI +52%
  • NFL +47 pts n=32, ROI +46%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won100% of 86 at avg 50¢, ROI +48%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢0%10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢56% (won 100% of 48)36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢42% (won 100% of 36)35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up2% (won 100% of 2)19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbiying99999BreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $2.0M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $70No $1.5M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $819K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $327KYes $604K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $287KNo $772
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $125KYes $1.7K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $88KNo $1.4K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42KNo $241K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.6KNo $7.1K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $12No $3.2K