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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| baisjex | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | UpTheBlues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (8–8, n=16) | 45% (546–663, n=1209) | 65% (870–459, n=1329) | 50% (18936–19161, n=38097) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $11.2M | $4.2M | $3.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #687 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #8 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 70% (39 of 56 open) | 71% (25 of 35 open) | 64% (32 of 50 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 8 at avg 57¢, ROI +64% | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 40605 at avg 67¢, ROI +36% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 25% (won 100% of 2) | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 7% (won 99% of 2777) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 13% (won 100% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 20% (won 100% of 8217) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 13% (won 100% of 1) | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 22% (won 100% of 8818) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 100% of 4) | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 51% (won 100% of 20793) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.