PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
aibabyCORGIIRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)no settled market63% (372–218, n=590)48% (11699–12466, n=24165)45% (501–606, n=1107)
Consensus PnL—$4.4M$13.4M$12.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #720PM monthly #162Hand-pickedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus0% (0 of 3 open)80% (4 of 5 open)65% (11 of 17 open)73% (24 of 33 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +3 pts n=30, ROI −5%
  • NFL +50 pts n=112, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=63, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=276, ROI +38%
Weakest topicSoccer −8 pts, n=42———
Settled positions, side won52% of 155 at avg 52¢, ROI +5%98% of 378 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%94% of 23802 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%97% of 497 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢8% (won 25% of 12)9% (won 91% of 35)10% (won 56% of 2460)11% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢41% (won 47% of 64)55% (won 99% of 209)22% (won 94% of 5332)34% (won 98% of 169)
Entries 50–70¢37% (won 51% of 57)34% (won 100% of 127)36% (won 99% of 8653)34% (won 99% of 170)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 86% of 22)2% (won 100% of 7)31% (won 100% of 7357)21% (won 100% of 105)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.