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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| Malfunction. | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 98% (11412–287, n=11699) | 66% (872–458, n=1330) | 47% (14225–15839, n=30064) |
| Consensus PnL | $624K | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #285 | PM monthly #25 | PM monthly #18 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (95 of 130 open) | 58% (39 of 67 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −6 pts, n=15 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 10966 at avg 96¢, ROI 0% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 19% of 225) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 50% of 204) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 58% of 170) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 95% (won 99% of 10367) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Malfunction. | ndb1 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $95K | No $1.5M | — |