Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankferrariChampions2026ndb1ThanksGivingTurkey1001
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)43% (11439–14898, n=26337)64% (1097–630, n=1727)70% (259–109, n=368)
Consensus PnL$7.6M$3.1M$4.8M$70K
Tracked asPM monthly #3was PM monthly #87PM monthly #97PM monthly #206
Sides with the consensus89% (32 of 36 open)44% (7 of 16 open)73% (111 of 152 open)83% (33 of 40 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
not computed yet
Weakest topic——NFL −8 pts, n=147Crypto ±0 pts, n=139
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%—64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%77% of 358 at avg 74¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)—13% (won 14% of 187)11% (won 22% of 41)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)—19% (won 39% of 269)10% (won 46% of 37)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)—23% (won 57% of 328)8% (won 67% of 30)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)—44% (won 94% of 622)70% (won 91% of 250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankferrariChampions2026ndb1ThanksGivingTurkey1001
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $409K—No $337K—
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $292K—Yes $11K—
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
same side · consensus No
——No $87KNo $3.4K