Consensus PnL $61K · win rate 70% (204–89, n=293) · PM monthly #211 · holds 41 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.9K
Record
204W / 89L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 293 settled
Batting Avg
52.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#774
Source
PM monthly #211
Record (90 d)
61/98 · 62%
Trades
309
Markets
378
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
41 in listed consensus markets · 33 of 41 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $94K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (73% of 136)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $62K · now 86¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (66% of 35)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $47K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (71% of 113)
- Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?No $8.7K · now 93¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $8.5K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 52)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $6.9K · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.7K · now 91¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?No $4.5K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
328 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 73¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 95% of 19 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +5%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 66% of 74 · avg entry 63¢
ROI 0%
- Finance
+2 pts
side won 85% of 60 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 74% of 133 at an average 74¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 24% of 38)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 44% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 66% of 29)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 91% of 225)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.