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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x10e131b8c71888adb0f1480143143c0BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)13% (16–108, n=124)45% (545–663, n=1208)66% (870–456, n=1326)
Consensus PnL$21K$11.2M$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #737PM monthly #1PM monthly #23
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position66% (72 of 109 open)71% (27 of 38 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicCrypto −6 pts, n=115—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won13% of 115 at avg 19¢, ROI −12%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢80% (won 3% of 92)10% (won 79% of 58)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢9% (won 20% of 10)36% (won 98% of 200)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢3% (won 50% of 4)35% (won 99% of 194)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up8% (won 89% of 9)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x10e131b8c71888adb0f1480143143c0BreakTheBankndb1
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $950K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $265KYes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $522K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $287KNo $79K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $30KNo $836
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $183KYes $2.9M
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $46KYes $9.7K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $125No $3.2K