Will Antti Lindtman be the next Prime Minister of Finland?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 69¢ · $112 held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$111.96
$21.55
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 appleperson<$100 | Yesavg 64.6¢ | $75.57 | $80.17 | +$4.6 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.16 | $12.33 | +$12.17 | 18% 853-3894 (4747) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.7¢ | $7.61 | $8.34 | +$0.74 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $7 | $6.3 | -$0.7 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.06 | $4.82 | +$4.75 | 42% 2627-3655 (6282) |
appleperson<$100Invested
$75.57
Value
$80.17
PnL
+$4.6
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$12.33
PnL
+$12.17
Record
18%
853-3894 (4747)
Invested
$7.61
Value
$8.34
PnL
+$0.74
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$0.7
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$4.82
PnL
+$4.75
Record
42%
2627-3655 (6282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.