Consensus PnL $5.6K · win rate 54% (426–361, n=787) · was PM monthly #980 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$5.6K
Record
426W / 361L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 787 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1486
Source
PM monthly #980
Trades
67
Markets
797
Volume
$443.2K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerGamerLegion $206 · now 100¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (67% of 57)
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group StageKarmine Corp $2 · now 78¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (78% of 52)
Specialties
429 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+45 pts
side won 98% of 399 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +46%
- Soccer
+45 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +31%
- NBA
+41 pts
side won 92% of 13 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 82% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 95% of 133)
- 50–70¢: 65%(won 100% of 277)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.