LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (60%) · Karmine Corp at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30

Karmine Corp79¢CTBC Flying Oyster21¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karmine Corp

Consensus Traders

Karmine Corp 60%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$3.69

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp79%

CTBC Flying Oyster22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karmine Corp3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,276

Combined PnL-$5.63

CTBC Flying Oyster2 traders

Total Value$132.24

Total Shares655

Combined PnL+$9.32

Karmine Corp — 60%CTBC Flying Oyster — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Karmine Corpavg 78.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$3.38	67% 29-14 (43)
Basquetipster	Karmine Corpavg 78¢	$350	$345.51	-$2.24	69% 1651-759 (2410)
VeryLucky888	Karmine Corpavg 77¢	$192.63	$192.63	-$0	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
SP sportteryqqCTR	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 21¢	$105.7	$114.38	+$8.68	40% 408-616 (1024)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 20.7¢	$17.22	$17.86	+$0.64	57% 12861-9776 (22637)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Karmine Corp

Invested

$1,241.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$3.38

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

Basquetipster

Karmine Corp

Invested

$350

Value

$345.51

PnL

-$2.24

Record

69%

1651-759 (2410)

VeryLucky888

Karmine Corp

Invested

$192.63

Value

$192.63

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

sportteryqqCTR

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$105.7

Value

$114.38

PnL

+$8.68

Record

40%

408-616 (1024)

ghorrockCTR<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$17.22

Value

$17.86

PnL

+$0.64

Record

57%

12861-9776 (22637)

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karmine Corp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.