Counter-Strike: STATE vs BBL (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold BBL (45%) · BBL at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 13

STATE45¢BBL55¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BBL

Consensus Traders

BBL 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$384.39

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 55.5¢

-23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBBL at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BBL

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

STATE45%

BBL56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BBL5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,525

Combined PnL-$992.51

STATE6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,927

Combined PnL+$608.13

BBL — 45%STATE — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on BBL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSTATE 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000STATE 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA Rayaya	BBLavg 69.1¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$399.23	64% 14-8 (22)
PN pnhctARB<$100	STATEavg 46.1¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$96.23	60% 18-12 (30)
└ STATE leg	STATEavg 46.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$111.65
└ BBL leg	BBLavg 55.5¢	$340.53	$355.95	+$15.42
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BBLavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$319.31	56% 156-125 (281)
NO nobody2somebody	BBLavg 73¢	$1.1K	$860.78	-$234.22	— 8-5 (13)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	STATEavg 24.9¢	$264.69	$445.85	+$181.16	4% 3-70 (73)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	BBLavg 51.8¢	$2.4K	$408.26	+$78.98	18% 47-216 (263)
└ BBL leg	BBLavg 51.8¢	$264.58	$304.19	-$227.52
└ STATE leg	STATEavg 40.5¢	$103.99	$104.08	+$306.5
TO topdogbigboiCTR	STATEavg 25.6¢	$244.58	$401.93	+$157.35	37% 657-1141 (1798)
CI cigarettesCTR	STATEavg 26.1¢	$204.77	$329.16	+$124.39	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	STATEavg 50¢	$262.5	$260.89	-$1.61	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ BBL leg	BBLavg 50¢	$131.25	$150.64	+$19.39
└ STATE leg	STATEavg 50¢	$131.25	$110.25	-$21
GA GaditimaCTR	STATEavg 25.5¢	$128.08	$211.1	+$83.02	47% 224-251 (475)
poshposhCTR	STATEavg 25.6¢	$114.68	$176.65	+$61.97	46% 781-902 (1683)
MaoZeDonKCTR	STATEavg 44.4¢	$102.04	$102.27	+$0.23	56% 15-12 (27)
KA Kaczka	BBLavg 78.6¢	$130	$91.74	-$38.26	1% 2-176 (178)
PA Pan9X<$100	BBLavg 74¢	$6.66	$5.16	-$1.5	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

Rayaya

BBL

Invested

$2,024.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$399.23

Record

64%

14-8 (22)

pnhctARB<$100

STATE

Invested

$1,584.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$96.23

Record

60%

18-12 (30)

Both legs:

STATE$1,243.7446.1¢-$111.65

BBL$340.5355.5¢+$15.42

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BBL

Invested

$1,422.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$319.31

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

nobody2somebody

BBL

Invested

$1,095

Value

$860.78

PnL

-$234.22

Record

—

8-5 (13)

JohnnyWinsCTR

STATE

Invested

$264.69

Value

$445.85

PnL

+$181.16

Record

3-70 (73)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

BBL

Invested

$2,395.46

Value

$408.26

PnL

+$78.98

Record

18%

47-216 (263)

Both legs:

BBL$264.5851.8¢-$227.52

STATE$103.9940.5¢+$306.5

topdogbigboiCTR

STATE

Invested

$244.58

Value

$401.93

PnL

+$157.35

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

cigarettesCTR

STATE

Invested

$204.77

Value

$329.16

PnL

+$124.39

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

NotJumpARB<$100

STATE

Invested

$262.5

Value

$260.89

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Invested

$128.08

Value

$211.1

PnL

+$83.02

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

poshposhCTR

STATE

Invested

$114.68

Value

$176.65

PnL

+$61.97

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

MaoZeDonKCTR

STATE

Invested

$102.04

Value

$102.27

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

15-12 (27)

Kaczka

BBL

Invested

$130

Value

$91.74

PnL

-$38.26

Record

2-176 (178)

Pan9X<$100

BBL

Invested

$6.66

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

NeutralBBL at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

BBL

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on BBL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSTATE 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000STATE 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BBL wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.