Counter-Strike: Four Magic vs Alliance (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group A

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Alliance (62%) · Alliance at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 13

Four Magic<1¢Alliance>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alliance

Consensus Traders

Alliance 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 100¢

+50% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Four Magic0%

Alliance100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alliance13 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares17,294

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Four Magic8 traders

Total Value$642.96

Total Shares10,948

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Alliance — 62%Four Magic — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Alliance. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFour Magic 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Alliance 63% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Liquidifier	Allianceavg 66¢	$3.5K	$5.3K	+$1.8K	21% 25-96 (121)
JA JabJabich	Allianceavg 62.1¢	$2.3K	$3.7K	+$1.4K	11% 5-42 (47)
lma0o0o0o	Allianceavg 64.2¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$752.92	54% 34-29 (63)
diceking	Allianceavg 55¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$846.31	— 5-3 (8)
Kangta9393	Allianceavg 74.2¢	$824.22	$1.1K	+$281.6	44% 28-35 (63)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Allianceavg 80.8¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	+$37.19	60% 133-87 (220)
CI cigarettes	Allianceavg 93¢	$614.32	$503.17	-$58.47	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
OM omnibus-076daa	Allianceavg 57.1¢	$264.42	$460.58	+$196.16	44% 391-495 (886)
AM ameisgoat11	Allianceavg 68.9¢	$354.35	$317.18	+$12.51	40% 584-893 (1477)
NO NotJumpCTR	Four Magicavg 46.3¢	$551.68	$272.5	-$66.25	53% 631-566 (1197)
31 319113331313111	Allianceavg 91.5¢	$2.3K	$235.44	-$214.69	57% 150-113 (263)
06 0x0636...d49aCTR	Four Magicavg 26.1¢	$682.64	$204.81	-$477.83	—
Future-Tarot-Trader	Allianceavg 94.8¢	$896.61	$153.11	-$275.61	52% 120-113 (233)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Allianceavg 99¢	$135.44	$136.13	+$0.68	82% 537-115 (652)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Four Magicavg 19.2¢	$410.11	$113.99	-$130.25	34% 65-125 (190)
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 68¢	$62.63	$88.41	+$45.79
└ Four Magic leg	Four Magicavg 19.2¢	$122.99	$25.57	-$176.04
PA Pan9X<$100	Allianceavg 88.8¢	$74.64	$80.73	+$6.09	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Four Magicavg 20.6¢	$316.68	$61.5	-$255.18	37% 657-1141 (1798)
poshposhCTR	Four Magicavg 18.5¢	$104.23	$60.58	-$43.65	46% 781-902 (1683)
MaoZeDonKCTR	Four Magicavg 33.7¢	$2.1K	$31.45	$-2.1K	56% 15-12 (27)
dips.CTR	Four Magicavg 30.7¢	$232.86	$11.4	-$100.65	46% 741-864 (1605)
US User7429CTR<$100	Four Magicavg 34¢	$4.2	$0.49	-$3.71	36% 252-442 (694)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Four Magicavg 26.4¢	$11.63	$0.22	-$11.41	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

Liquidifier

Alliance

Invested

$3,509.4

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

21%

25-96 (121)

JabJabich

Alliance

Invested

$2,303.93

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

11%

5-42 (47)

lma0o0o0o

Alliance

Invested

$1,370.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$752.92

Record

54%

34-29 (63)

diceking

Alliance

Invested

$1,135.29

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$846.31

Record

—

5-3 (8)

Kangta9393

Alliance

Invested

$824.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$281.6

Record

44%

28-35 (63)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Alliance

Invested

$1,590.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$37.19

Record

60%

133-87 (220)

cigarettes

Alliance

Invested

$614.32

Value

$503.17

PnL

-$58.47

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

omnibus-076daa

Alliance

Invested

$264.42

Value

$460.58

PnL

+$196.16

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

ameisgoat11

Alliance

Invested

$354.35

Value

$317.18

PnL

+$12.51

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

NotJumpCTR

Four Magic

Invested

$551.68

Value

$272.5

PnL

-$66.25

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

319113331313111

Alliance

Invested

$2,290.8

Value

$235.44

PnL

-$214.69

Record

57%

150-113 (263)

0x0636...d49aCTR

Four Magic

Invested

$682.64

Value

$204.81

PnL

-$477.83

Record

—

Future-Tarot-Trader

Alliance

Invested

$896.61

Value

$153.11

PnL

-$275.61

Record

52%

120-113 (233)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Alliance

Invested

$135.44

Value

$136.13

PnL

+$0.68

Record

82%

537-115 (652)

calculate10ARB<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$410.11

Value

$113.99

PnL

-$130.25

Record

34%

65-125 (190)

Both legs:

Alliance$62.6368¢+$45.79

Four Magic$122.9919.2¢-$176.04

Pan9X<$100

Alliance

Invested

$74.64

Value

$80.73

PnL

+$6.09

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

topdogbigboiCTR

Four Magic

Invested

$316.68

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$255.18

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

poshposhCTR

Four Magic

Invested

$104.23

Value

$60.58

PnL

-$43.65

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

MaoZeDonKCTR

Four Magic

Invested

$2,122.52

Value

$31.45

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

56%

15-12 (27)

dips.CTR

Four Magic

Invested

$232.86

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$100.65

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

User7429CTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$4.2

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$3.71

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

suntoriCTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$11.63

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$11.41

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Alliance. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFour Magic 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Alliance 63% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alliance wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.