Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$45.32

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 55.5¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,708

Combined PnL+$28.73

No3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,145

Combined PnL+$16.59

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TY Tyatsmr	Yesavg 63.1¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$385.14	— 4-0 (4)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 47.6¢	$974.99	$919.99	-$55	1% 4-422 (426)
KnureKnume	Yesavg 52¢	$996.45	$675.14	+$129.5	9% 9-86 (95)
TI timetowander	Yesavg 62¢	$620	$407.03	-$52.47	45% 354-435 (789)
CarCTR	Noavg 51.3¢	$358.91	$307.57	-$51.34	68% 1403-647 (2050)
LolakisARB<$100	Yesavg 58.5¢	$417.5	$250	-$25	18% 7-32 (39)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.5¢	$146.25	$140	-$10
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$125	$110	-$15
Optimus-CTR	Noavg 37.5¢	$1.5K	$240.25	+$122.93	— 2-9 (11)
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 50.8¢	$1.5K	$110.09	+$389.21	72% 1117-425 (1542)
HoshinoAI	Yesavg 58¢	$205.94	$32.89	-$43.95	36% 19-34 (53)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$89.25	$29.08	-$8.42	40% 3344-4978 (8322)

Tyatsmr

Yes

Invested

$3,440.48

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$385.14

Record

—

4-0 (4)

881112CTR

Invested

$974.99

Value

$919.99

PnL

-$55

Record

4-422 (426)

KnureKnume

Yes

Invested

$996.45

Value

$675.14

PnL

+$129.5

Record

9-86 (95)

timetowander

Yes

Invested

$620

Value

$407.03

PnL

-$52.47

Record

45%

354-435 (789)

CarCTR

Invested

$358.91

Value

$307.57

PnL

-$51.34

Record

68%

1403-647 (2050)

LolakisARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$417.5

Value

$250

PnL

-$25

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

Both legs:

Yes$146.2558.5¢-$10

No$12550¢-$15

Optimus-CTR

Invested

$1,475.68

Value

$240.25

PnL

+$122.93

Record

—

2-9 (11)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$1,459.4

Value

$110.09

PnL

+$389.21

Record

72%

1117-425 (1542)

HoshinoAI

Yes

Invested

$205.94

Value

$32.89

PnL

-$43.95

Record

36%

19-34 (53)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.25

Value

$29.08

PnL

-$8.42

Record

40%

3344-4978 (8322)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.