Gabon vs. Lesotho: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$3.2K
$288.61
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MaoZeDonK | Underavg 49.4¢ | $1.5K | $2.5K | +$967.24 | 56% 15-12 (27) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 50.5¢ | $1.3K | $669.06 | -$606.87 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.7¢ | $153.31 | $81.51 | -$71.8 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $1.67 | $1.7 | +$0.03 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
MaoZeDonKInvested
$1,490
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$967.24
Record
56%
15-12 (27)
Invested
$1,275.93
Value
$669.06
PnL
-$606.87
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$153.31
Value
$81.51
PnL
-$71.8
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.