Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $12K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$11.5K
-$936.47
81.8¢ → 75.5¢
-8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 254321758 | Noavg 82¢ | $8.2K | $7.5K | -$650 | 68% 502-236 (738) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 81.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.3K | -$261.77 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 81¢ | $328.05 | $305.78 | -$22.28 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $189.79 | $191.62 | +$1.83 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81¢ | $141.76 | $132.09 | -$9.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $48.03 | $59.53 | +$11.5 | |
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 82¢ | $153.41 | $151.54 | -$1.87 | 68% 340-160 (500) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $20.2 | $20.4 | +$0.2 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $8.35 | $7.6 | -$0.75 | 83% 24-5 (29) |
Invested
$8,200
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$650
Record
68%
502-236 (738)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$3,580.61
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$261.77
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
Invested
$328.05
Value
$305.78
PnL
-$22.28
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$189.79
Value
$191.62
PnL
+$1.83
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Both legs:
AllByMyseIfInvested
$153.41
Value
$151.54
PnL
-$1.87
Record
68%
340-160 (500)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$7.6
PnL
-$0.75
Record
83%
24-5 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.