Consensus PnL $5.6K · win rate 82% (9–2, n=11) · PM monthly #190 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$5.6K
Record
9W / 2L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
69.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#395
Source
PM monthly #190
Record (90 d)
9/11 · 82%
Trades
1,364
Markets
53
Volume
$1.0M
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Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 26 on the consensus side (65%)- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $200K · now 17¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (65% of 21)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Yes $40K · now 62¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (62% of 14)
- Will Ian Buck be the next CEO of NVIDIA?No $16K · now 63¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (62% of 30)
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No $16K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?No $15K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?No $12K · now 76¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (37% of 30)
- Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?No $4.5K · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Jensen Huang admits to another affair with a woman by December 31?No $3.3K · now 71¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (45% of 12)
Specialties
8 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where pIebe's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.