Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $504 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$503.63
-$60.26
81.9¢ → 76.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 83.5¢ | $1.0K | $300 | -$57.1 | 57% 15028-11433 (26461) |
 GonTanaka | Noavg 78.7¢ | $132.22 | $125.99 | -$6.23 | 58% 160-117 (277) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $300.47 | $57.59 | +$3.12 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $12.65 | $12.55 | -$0.1 | 60% 792-534 (1326) |
JE Jest55<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8 | $7.5 | +$0.05 | 75% 999-332 (1331) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,002
Value
$300
PnL
-$57.1
Record
57%
15028-11433 (26461)
GonTanakaInvested
$132.22
Value
$125.99
PnL
-$6.23
Record
58%
160-117 (277)
Invested
$300.47
Value
$57.59
PnL
+$3.12
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
tetrase<$100Invested
$12.65
Value
$12.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
60%
792-534 (1326)
Invested
$8
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
75%
999-332 (1331)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.