US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$369.27

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 75.5¢

-9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 76%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,924

Combined PnL-$563.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,406

Combined PnL+$193.84

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pIebeARB<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$4.3K	$3.1K	+$467.46	62% 916-565 (1481)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$17.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.8¢	$301.29	$751.72	+$450.43
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 85¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$170	77% 1548-466 (2014)
BR browne	Noavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$70	72% 194-76 (270)
UnderperformingForALiving	Noavg 90¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$290	37% 105-180 (285)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 16¢	$738.85	$769.62	+$147.06	36% 600-1055 (1655)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 78.1¢	$478.89	$463.13	-$15.76	—
Tenebrus7	Noavg 78.7¢	$472	$453	-$19	73% 3046-1109 (4155)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$205.61	$252.39	+$46.78	57% 871-649 (1520)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$194.73	$211.83	+$17.1	32% 21107-45346 (66453)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.6¢	$136.59	$118.19	-$18.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14¢	$58.14	$93.65	+$35.51
Relaccsed	Noavg 80.7¢	$193.6	$182.4	-$11.2	55% 1350-1084 (2434)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 71.6¢	$145.06	$154.99	+$9.93	73% 3689-1397 (5086)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 74¢	$148	$153	+$5	55% 17610-14529 (32139)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$54.81	$29.02	-$1.98	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 83¢	$18.75	$24.75	-$0.1	16% 1406-7523 (8929)

pIebeARB<$100

Invested

$4,283.49

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$467.46

Record

62%

916-565 (1481)

Both legs:

No$2,385.576.1¢+$17.03

Yes$301.299.8¢+$450.43

QMG-CORE

Invested

$1,700

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$170

Record

77%

1548-466 (2014)

browne

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$70

Record

72%

194-76 (270)

UnderperformingForALiving

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$290

Record

37%

105-180 (285)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$738.85

Value

$769.62

PnL

+$147.06

Record

36%

600-1055 (1655)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$478.89

Value

$463.13

PnL

-$15.76

Record

—

Tenebrus7

Invested

$472

Value

$453

PnL

-$19

Record

73%

3046-1109 (4155)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.61

Value

$252.39

PnL

+$46.78

Record

57%

871-649 (1520)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$194.73

Value

$211.83

PnL

+$17.1

Record

32%

21107-45346 (66453)

Both legs:

No$136.5989.6¢-$18.41

Yes$58.1414¢+$35.51

Relaccsed

Invested

$193.6

Value

$182.4

PnL

-$11.2

Record

55%

1350-1084 (2434)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$145.06

Value

$154.99

PnL

+$9.93

Record

73%

3689-1397 (5086)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$148

Value

$153

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

17610-14529 (32139)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$54.81

Value

$29.02

PnL

-$1.98

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$18.75

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

16%

1406-7523 (8929)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 76%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.5%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.