Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$84.54
95¢ → 92.5¢
-3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 95.5¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$90.21 | — 1-0 (1) |
LI lissartterARB<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $192.52 | $217.24 | +$24.73 | — 6-4 (10) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 93.1¢ | $133.99 | $133.27 | -$0.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $58.53 | $83.97 | +$25.45 | |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 92.3¢ | $166.39 | $166.94 | +$0.55 | 73% 1113-422 (1535) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 91.8¢ | $133.46 | $135.05 | +$1.59 | 40% 3231-4852 (8083) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $94.33 | $93.53 | -$0.81 | 2% 1-61 (62) |
 HoshinoAI | Noavg 92.3¢ | $334.17 | $69.98 | +$6.22 | 41% 13-19 (32) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $58.44 | $58.31 | -$0.13 | 38% 61-99 (160) |
TH thoodr<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $27.84 | $27.78 | -$0.06 | 95% 317-18 (335) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4 | $2.3 | -$1.7 | 69% 1400-643 (2043) |
Invested
$2,863.7
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$90.21
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$192.52
Value
$217.24
PnL
+$24.73
Record
—
6-4 (10)
Both legs:
Parz1vaIInvested
$166.39
Value
$166.94
PnL
+$0.55
Record
73%
1113-422 (1535)
Invested
$133.46
Value
$135.05
PnL
+$1.59
Record
40%
3231-4852 (8083)
Invested
$94.33
Value
$93.53
PnL
-$0.81
Record
2%
1-61 (62)
HoshinoAIInvested
$334.17
Value
$69.98
PnL
+$6.22
Record
41%
13-19 (32)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$58.44
Value
$58.31
PnL
-$0.13
Record
38%
61-99 (160)
Invested
$27.84
Value
$27.78
PnL
-$0.06
Record
95%
317-18 (335)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$1.7
Record
69%
1400-643 (2043)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.