Will Ian Buck be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 70¢ · $141 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$141.06
$4.5
63.1¢ → 69.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $66.82 | $64.7 | -$2.12 | 53% 1614-1416 (3030) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $31.8 | $35.25 | +$3.45 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $13.77 | $15.05 | +$1.28 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.46 | $14.17 | +$1.71 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $5.4 | $5.9 | +$0.5 | 66% 4143-2169 (6312) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $4.41 | $4.27 | -$0.14 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $1.9 | $1.72 | -$0.18 | 26% 1244-3525 (4769) |
Invested
$66.82
Value
$64.7
PnL
-$2.12
Record
53%
1614-1416 (3030)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$35.25
PnL
+$3.45
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$1.28
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$12.46
Value
$14.17
PnL
+$1.71
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$0.5
Record
66%
4143-2169 (6312)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$0.14
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.18
Record
26%
1244-3525 (4769)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.