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5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$120.76

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 68¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares8,065

Combined PnL+$724.02

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,021

Combined PnL-$603.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 58.9¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$432.51	— 8-6 (14)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 63.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$108.07	72% 1117-425 (1542)
TY TyatsmrCTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$386.83	— 4-0 (4)
WarriorPoohCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$693.05	$502.11	-$190.94	— 3-2 (5)
KimchiCapital	Noavg 49.3¢	$248.37	$356.35	+$109.99	— 9-0 (9)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 55¢	$165	$213	+$48	—
88 881112ARB<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$192.62	$200.63	+$8.01	1% 4-422 (426)
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$81.62	$113.63	+$32.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$111	$87	-$24
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 54.6¢	$103.95	$129.4	+$25.45	— 3-5 (8)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$98	$78.94	-$19.06	38% 78-128 (206)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$93.98	$28.42	-$7.84	6% 5-73 (78)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 42.3¢	$147.12	$13.46	+$1.4	40% 3308-4936 (8244)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$2,812.38

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$432.51

Record

—

8-6 (14)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$1,469.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$108.07

Record

72%

1117-425 (1542)

TyatsmrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,517.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$386.83

Record

—

4-0 (4)

WarriorPoohCTR

Yes

Invested

$693.05

Value

$502.11

PnL

-$190.94

Record

—

3-2 (5)

KimchiCapital

Invested

$248.37

Value

$356.35

PnL

+$109.99

Record

—

9-0 (9)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$165

Value

$213

PnL

+$48

Record

—

881112ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$192.62

Value

$200.63

PnL

+$8.01

Record

4-422 (426)

Both legs:

No$81.6251¢+$32.01

Yes$11137¢-$24

Kevindoto

Invested

$103.95

Value

$129.4

PnL

+$25.45

Record

—

3-5 (8)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98

Value

$78.94

PnL

-$19.06

Record

38%

78-128 (206)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.98

Value

$28.42

PnL

-$7.84

Record

5-73 (78)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.12

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$1.4

Record

40%

3308-4936 (8244)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.