Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 65% (4199–2222, n=6421) · PM monthly #995 · holds 106 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.0K
Record
4199W / 2222L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 6421 settled
Batting Avg
54.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#613
Source
PM monthly #995
Record (90 d)
3357/4970 · 68%
Trades
38,970
Markets
20,589
Volume
$3.0M
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Top consensus positions
106 in listed consensus markets · 69 of 106 on the consensus side (65%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $249 · now 54¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (76% of 38)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over $154 · now 51¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Athletic Club $116 · now 78¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?No $112 · now 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under $105 · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-11-06?No $89 · now 60¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under $85 · now 95¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (44% of 10)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes $81 · now 28¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,212 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 72¢- College Football
+38 pts
side won 100% of 250 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +36%
- Tennis
+35 pts
side won 100% of 123 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +31%
- NBA
+34 pts
side won 100% of 168 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 43)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 100% of 156)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 100% of 310)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 100% of 703)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.