Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 25%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
$64.94
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
303h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $3.3K | $3.0K | -$423.85 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84¢ | $3.0K | $2.3K | -$862.18 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 17.1¢ | $327.96 | $689.65 | +$438.33 | |
MI MinevaJCTR | Overavg 18.6¢ | $270.06 | $666 | +$395.94 | 58% 940-684 (1624) |
 ER72SEN | Underavg 91.5¢ | $1.1K | $646.31 | -$339.76 | 66% 286-147 (433) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $3.75 | $11.25 | +$7.5 | 51% 7195-6826 (14021) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $1.77 | $3.03 | +$1.26 | 55% 14891-12190 (27081) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,268.94
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$423.85
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.06
Value
$666
PnL
+$395.94
Record
58%
940-684 (1624)
ER72SENInvested
$1,077.19
Value
$646.31
PnL
-$339.76
Record
66%
286-147 (433)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$7.5
Record
51%
7195-6826 (14021)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$1.26
Record
55%
14891-12190 (27081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.