XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 100¢ · $690 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

Total Value

$690.08

Combined PnL

$178.23

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 100¢

+174% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$507.68

Total Shares549

Combined PnL+$183.27

Up6 traders

Total Value$182.39

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$5.04

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 38.3¢	$266.24	$327.79	+$86.11	—
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 30.4¢	$44.93	$128.01	+$83.07	—
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$53.07	$51.29	-$1.78	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$48.79	$39.12	-$4.67	—
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$35.5	$37.75	+$2.25	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$23.65	$25	+$1.35	—
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 39¢	$7.89	$18.73	+$10.84	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 76¢	$17.75	$17.1	-$0.65	—
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 46.4¢	$15.46	$16.66	+$1.2	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 69¢	$13.68	$12.14	-$1.54	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 31.5¢	$6.45	$7.85	+$1.4	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 47¢	$6.55	$6.97	+$0.42	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 12¢	$1.44	$1.68	+$0.24	—

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$266.24

Value

$327.79

PnL

+$86.11

Record

—

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$44.93

Value

$128.01

PnL

+$83.07

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$53.07

Value

$51.29

PnL

-$1.78

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$48.79

Value

$39.12

PnL

-$4.67

Record

—

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$23.65

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.35

Record

—

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$7.89

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$10.84

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$0.65

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$15.46

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$1.2

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$13.68

Value

$12.14

PnL

-$1.54

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$6.45

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$1.4

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0.42

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.24

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.