Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $160 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$160.26

Combined PnL

-$9

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$71.1

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$0.02

Up5 traders

Total Value$30.7

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$9.02

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$66.72	$57.82	-$8.9	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$28.55	$34.44	+$5.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$38.17	$23.38	-$14.79
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$43.88	$37.18	-$3.53	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$24.69	$24.91	+$0.22	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 22.9¢	$21.73	$24.27	+$2.54	—
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 31.5¢	$5.67	$9	+$3.33	—
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$1.98	$2.59	+$0.61	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$11.85	$2.34	-$9.51	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.8	$1.4	-$0.41	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 12.4¢	$2.35	$0.1	-$2.26	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$66.72

Value

$57.82

PnL

-$8.9

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$43.88

Value

$37.18

PnL

-$3.53

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$24.69

Value

$24.91

PnL

+$0.22

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$21.73

Value

$24.27

PnL

+$2.54

Record

—

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$5.67

Value

PnL

+$3.33

Record

—

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.61

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$9.51

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.26

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.